Words like ‘neocolonialism’ and ‘neo-imperialists’ are being tossed around by spokesmen of freshly-installed military regimes in Central and West Africa – but the language of their pronouncements is French, reflecting the centuries of invasion, cooperation, exploitation and alliance of France in the Sahel.

Commonly referred to as ‘Francophone Africa’, the jigsaw puzzle of countries have in quite recent times seen a dramatic shift of power, and one not in its favor. Traditional cozy relationships with decades-long dictatorships – ostensibly democracies but controlled and corrupt in a heads-I-win-and-tails-you-lose elite pageantry are under serious siege.

Look at hapless, raggedy-ass Francophone Africa, all of whose republics, independent since the 1960s, are still exploited merrily by the former colonial power, through comprador governments and military force.

Here’s Niger, the vast landlocked West African nation with prodigious quantities of uranium buried and ready to be mined; at ~$9,000/ton, uranium ore is spectacularly more precious even than gold ore (~$1,600/ton). The energy policy of the French Republic is heavily committed to nuclear power (because they are realists) so they are in urgent need of that tasty Nigerien ore.

And the average Nigerien? He or she sees next to nothing of the wealth, as it flows abroad: only 17% of the nation has access to electrical mains power; per capita GDP in Niger was last recorded at 545.46 US dollars in 2022. To drive home that point, the average Nigerien family takes home around US$ 45/month, in a land of massive natural riches. Now does it not make sense that the average educated inhabitant of this hemmed-in West African nation is dissatisfied with their compromised, crooked rulers, after six decades of independence?

When the era of direct colonial rule in the Francophone nations of Central and West Africa gave way to independence and a form of democratic rule, both of these noble concepts were compromised by a desperate economic plight and the smooth formation of a tight military-backed band of elite thieves.

Comprador regimes tightly linked to French companies and government agencies ensured that the wealth of the country would end up in their pockets – actually the bulging purses of beaming, obliging Swiss, French and British bankers.

Take Niger: how do you run a representative democracy when the literacy rate of the people – hungry and frequently ill, most of them – is just 17%? Infant mortality, dramatically improved since 1960, still sits at 10%. It is a sad and unfunny joke, in a landlocked country 80% of which extends across the hostile Sahara.

Eventually the military figured out they were getting screwed (along with everyone else not “connected” to the power elite). Boom – boom – boom! Seven military coups have walloped Francophone Africa since August 2020: Niger (July 2023), Burkina Faso (January and September 2022), Sudan (October 2021), Guinea (September 2021) and Mali (August 2020 and May 2021). Sacre bleu! Mon Dieu!

Average people were sick and tired of seeing their corrupt elites sucking wealth out of the country, while they shamefully lived in desperate conditions.

Look at the evil Mobuto Sese Seko, dictator of Zaire from 1965 ~ 1997: between $5~15 billion stolen and squirreled away in happy Swiss banks… luxurious Euro-properties, private jets, a collection of expensive cars… a $4 million vacation home at Cap Martin on the Mediterranean coast of France… an apartment on the upscale Avenue Foch in Paris, and on and on. While his country suffered 30% child mortality, surviving children grew up stunted and thin with rickets. “Foreign friends” did not care, because monster Mobutu was <pause for effect> an “anti-Communist”, butthole-buddies with Presidents Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan, and George H. W. Bush.

The United States was the third largest donor of aid to Zaire (after Belgium and France), holding its nose and ignoring his detestable human rights crimes.

Fast-forward to 2023. The freshly-installed military-backed regimes in Francophone Africa now find themselves in the same quandary as the little boy who prayed and prayed for a volcano: he got one. Beset with fanatic Islamist insurgency, well-funded by the nasty oil-autocracies of the Arab crescent and fearful that they too might get the chop from another clique of their own military, they turn to … surprise! Russia and China, now obligingly making their presence known throughout Francophone Africa, ready to do business. The Wagner Group is laying out counter-insurgency strategy with Niger and neighboring nations; the People’s Republic of China is lathering money on hospitals, bridges, railroads and other infrastructure – without superior lectures on gender rights or democratic theater.

Neither Russia nor China is burdened with the poisonous heritage of colonial rule; neither were slavers or hand-choppers or oppressors of the natives. That is certainly in their favor. Europe may have “apologized” for the naughty behavior of elite brutes like German colonials, who are remembered for the Herero and Nama genocide, which occurred between 1904 and 1908 in German South West Africa (modern-day Namibia), along with massive forced labor and oppression. The fearsome Mau Mau Uprising in Kenya engendered retaliation with massive human rights abuses by the polite, civilized British colonial rulers.

Russia and China have their own sorry history of oppression, but not in Africa – and that is to their credit, as far as the fresh military regimes now in power are concerned.

“Who’s going to rape me next?” the continent asks cheerfully.

The post The Fading Influence of France in Francophone Africa appeared first on Ankara Haftalik.

Three hundred people submit their resignation from the Turkish Future Party and join the Erdogan’s Justice and Development.

Turkish media reported that 300 people resigned from the Turkish Future Party led by former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in the state of Erzurum and joined Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party.

Among the resigned members was the Future Party’s Youth Branch President in Erzurum, Muhammet Firat Kirbac.

During an affiliation ceremony, the newly admitted members were handed the badge of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party by parliamentarian Selami AltinokIn.

In a speech during the ceremony, AltinokIn said that “Turkey will continue its rise through unity and solidarity under the umbrella of the Justice and Development Party.”

He stressed that the supporters of the People’s Alliance, which is made up of the Justice and Development Party, as well as other Turkish parties, “will not leave Turkey’s fate to those who take their orders from imperialist countries and terrorist organizations.”

On his part, Kirbac pointed out that the 300 members submitted their resignations after discovering that the Future Party’s leadership supports the Peoples’ Democratic Party, which Turkey considers the political wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

This comes two weeks before Turkish people cast their votes in the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections.

Source: Al Mayadeen

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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has appointed a new economic team to get spiraling price increases under control following his recent re-election victory. Among the appointments are a new central bank chief and a new economy minister, both of whom have been praised by international observers for appearing capable of undoing Erdogan’s unorthodox policies that have contributed to the country’s inflation woes.

Marketplace’s Sabri Ben-Achour spoke with Victoria Craig, a reporter based in Turkey who has been covering the election and its aftermath. The following is an edited transcript of their conversation.

Sabri Ben-Achour: So let’s just zoom out real quick and talk about economic policy in Turkey. Inflation there is insane. It’s off the charts. And the newly reelected president has basically so far done literally the opposite of what economics says you should do to fight inflation. Why has that been?

Victoria Craig: Well, it’s because President Erdogan has just always been opposed to higher interest rates. He’s said in the past that they cause inflation rather than help it. He’s described them as the mother and father of all evil. Over the past two years, interest rates have been slashed from 19% to 8.5%, and that is despite soaring inflation that topped out in the fall at 85.5%.

Ben-Achour: With that in mind, Turkey now has a new central bank governor with some sort of traditional economic credentials. Tell us about her.

Craig: Well, her name is Hafize Gaye Erkan and based on her resume, you can see why the international community is sort of cheering this appointment today. She’s a dual Turkish-American citizen. She has a degree in financial engineering and operations research from Princeton. She spent a decade at Goldman Sachs and most recently she was the co-CEO of the now-failed First Republic Bank for eight years. She left that job in December 2021.

Ben-Achour: And Turkey’s also got a new finance and treasury minister, Mehmet Simsek. So with this new team, do we think Turkey is going to start digging its way out of its inflation problem by raising interest rates and doing what economics would suggest you should be doing?

Craig: Well it certainly feels like that’s what’s been teed up. And when he took over on Sunday, Simsek pledged to return Turkey to “rational economic policy”. This week, we’ve already seen part of that new strategy put in place with the lira’s more than 7% plunge to more than 23 to the U.S. dollar. It had been artificially held above 20 ahead of the election, and economists still say there’s room for it to fall even further. That itself is inflationary. So many expect the interest rate hikes will be very soon to combat both the impact of the currency declines and the already very high inflation levels that we’re seeing here.

Ben-Achour: On the other hand, raising interest rates can be tough politically. How do we know President Erdogan isn’t going to just intervene in economic policy like he has in the past to just scrap the whole thing?

Craig: We don’t know, that’s the short answer. The next central bank meeting is in almost exactly two weeks. As you mentioned, though, the big question is how much we’re going to see interest rates rise, and for how long. As we’ve seen in the past, the president has not been shy about dismissing central bankers and finance chiefs that he disagrees with.

Source: Market Place

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Turkish military personnel in western Libya have been arriving in Misrata city to vote in the Turkish elections at the Turkish consulate. In Turkey and abroad, more than five million new voters are expected to participate in the upcoming Turkish elections on May 14, marking their first time casting a ballot.

The Turkish military has been involved in Libya’s civil war, supporting the Tripoli-based government and the armed groups affiliated with it. They have received military support from Turkey, which included the provision of weapons, drones, and military advisors. Additionally, Turkey has established military and naval bases in western Libya, including the Al-Watiya Airbase located south of Tripoli and in Misrata.

The Turkish military personnel have been arriving in Misrata on Turkish buses, under the protection of the Libyan 154th Protection and Guard Battalion. The Turkish consulate in Misrata has been closed to the public since May 1, in preparation for the elections.

The presence of Turkish military personnel in Libya has been a contentious issue, with some accusing Turkey of violating the UN arms embargo on Libya. The Turkish government has defended its actions, stating that it is supporting the internationally recognized government in Libya. However, the Libyan House of Representatives, which is based in the eastern city of Benghazi, has accused Turkey of interfering in Libya’s internal affairs and supporting terrorist groups. The situation has further complicated the already complex political landscape in Libya, with two rival governments vying for power.

Source: The Libya Update

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Turkey’s opposition alliance has vowed to reverse many of President Tayyip Erdogan’s policies if elected in a May 14 election, including a return to a parliamentary democracy and economic orthodoxy, and a major shift in foreign policy.

Last month Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of the six-party Nation Alliance, unveiled the opposition’s programme for its first 100 days in power.

Pledges ranged from a return to daylight saving time, tax and insurance reductions, and a merit-based recruitment system for all public servant employment.

Here are details of the plan:

LEGISLATIVE AND EXECUTIVE REFORMS

The main promise is a return to a parliamentary system, which the alliance says will be “stronger” than the one in place before a switch in 2018 to the current presidential system.

It would reinstate the position of prime minister, which was abolished by Erdogan through a referendum in 2017, and make the presidency an “impartial” role with no political responsibility. The president’s right to veto legislation and issue decrees would be abolished.

The president would sever ties to any political party, only serve one seven-year term and afterward be banned from active politics.

The parliament’s authority to back out of international agreements would be enshrined in the constitution. It will also have more authority over planning the government budget.

In public administration, boards and offices under the presidency would be abolished and their duties transferred to relevant ministries.

ECONOMY

The Nation Alliance promised to lower inflation, running at 44% in April, to single digits within two years and restore the stability of the lira, which has lost 80% of its value against the dollar in the past five years.

It would ensure the central bank’s independence and roll back measures such as allowing the cabinet to select its governor.

It would prepare legislation allowing parliament to pass laws on the central bank’s mission, operational independence and high-level appointments.

Policies that interfere with a floating exchange rate would end, including a government scheme that protects lira deposits against currency depreciation.

It pledged to cut government expenditure by reducing the number of planes used by the presidency, the number of vehicles used by civil servants, and selling some state buildings.

All projects under public-private partnerships would be reviewed. It would review the Akkuyu nuclear plant project – owned by Russian state entities – and renegotiate natural gas contracts, reducing the risk of dependence on certain countries for gas imports.

FOREIGN POLICY

It would adopt the slogan of “Peace at Home, Peace in the World” as the cornerstone of Turkey’s foreign policy.

While promising to “work to complete the accession process” for the full membership in the European Union, the alliance has vowed to review Turkey’s 2016 refugee deal with the EU.

It would establish relations with the United States with an understanding of mutual trust, and return Turkey to the F-35 fighter jet programme.

Turkey would maintain relations with Russia “with an understanding that both parties are equal and strengthened by balanced and constructive dialogue.”

LEGAL REFORMS

The six opposition parties pledged to ensure the independence of the judiciary, which critics say Erdogan and his allies use to crack down on dissent, a claim denied by the government.

Judges’ willingness to abide by Constitutional Court and European Court of Human Rights rulings would be considered when evaluating promotions.

Judges and prosecutors who cause rights violations that lead Turkey to be fined at the two courts would be made to pay the fine. Measures would be taken to ensure courts quickly implement rulings by the two high courts.

The Board of Judges and Prosecutors would be reformed and split into two entities for more accountability and transparency.

The structure and elections processes for higher courts, such as the Constitutional Court, the Court of Cassation and Council of State would be reformed.

It would ensure that pre-trial detentions are the exception, a measure that critics say is abused under Erdogan’s rule. It would strengthen freedom of expression and broaden the right to hold demonstrations.

Source: In-Cyprus

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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reappeared on the campaign trail in western Turkey on Saturday in the flesh, and in thundering form.

He arrived in the port city of Izmir to a sea of flags, and a large crowd that had been waiting hours under a hot sun. It was a strong turnout in an opposition stronghold.

There was no sign of the illness which caused him to drop out of key events for three days this week – just a fortnight ahead of critical elections. The polls – for the presidency and parliament – will be his toughest challenge yet, after twenty years in power.

The president spoke for almost 40 minutes, in a strong voice, mocking the opposition, raising the spectre of “terrorism”, and saying only he could deliver growth for Turkey. It was a combative performance which will have reassured his supporters and may have worried his detractors.

His main rival for the presidency, Kemal Kilicdaroglu – a secular candidate backed by an alliance of six parties – will hold a rally in the same spot on Sunday. Opinion polls give a slight lead to Mr Kilicdaroglu – a softly spoken former civil servant – but the election could well be a photo finish.

The Turkish leader, who is 69, startled TV viewers on Tuesday night when he became unwell during a live broadcast, which had to be halted. He blamed it on a stomach bug.

“When I heard the news about his health, I asked God to give me his illness,” said Gurbet Dostum, a 42-year-old Mother of two. “I am ready to be in pain for him. He gives us everything.”

But many here have less and less, due to rampant inflation which is officially around 50%. Experts have blamed the President’s unorthodox economic policies, but not Gurbet. She said those who complained were “greedy and ungrateful and just wanted more and more”.

Like many women at the rally – which was segregated – she was wearing a headscarf. The president’s bedrock is religious conservatives, but there were secular supporters there too.

“He changed the country,” said Guldana, a 57-year-old with a diamond in her tooth. “Before him Turkey was a village.”

An unemployed young woman called Ayse said she would vote for Erdogan for love of her country. “He will make us rise, and get stronger,” she said.

Those who back the president want him to extend his long rule and continue with his vision for Turkey. Many Turks want just the opposite. The electorate – like the country – is divided.

Some of those who had waited hours for the president to arrive drifted away while he was still speaking.

Source: BBC

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Thousands gathered at a rally in Istanbul on Saturday to express their support for the opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

With one week to go until Turkey’s presidential and legislative elections, the latest polls are showing him with a slight lead on the current President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Polls are suggesting it will be a tight competition for both the presidential and parliamentary races, which will determine not only who will lead Turkey but also what role it may play on the international scene. 

Many wonder whether Kilicdaroglu can defeat the veteran president, who is the country’s longest-serving leader and has repeatedly defeated the other statesman in the past.

The opposition candidate has earned the support of the other five leaders of the six-party opposition alliance, and Mayors of two major cities, Istanbul and Ankara.

The coalition, known as the Nation Alliance, has vowed to reverse the democratic backsliding and crackdowns on free speech and dissent under Erdogan, seeking to scrap the powerful presidential system he introduced that concentrates vast authority in his hands.

The end of the Erdogan era?

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for 20 years and has used his charisma to secure multiple victories.

However, this election on May 14th may prove to be the most challenging for him, as it comes as Turkey faces economic turmoil and high inflation. 

The president has been aggressively slashing interest rates as part of his unorthodox economic approach. The cuts sent inflation to a 24-year peak above 85% in October before it dipped to near 50% in March. The ensuing cost-of-living crisis has gripped Turkish households and squeezed earnings and savings.

Furthermore, the Turkish leader is also facing backlash over his office’s reaction to a devastating earthquake in February, which killed over 48,000 people in the country and brought down over 100,000 buildings and homes.

Erdogan’s government was criticized for its poor response to the disaster and for failing to prepare the country for a large-scale quake. He himself has conceded that there were shortcomings in the early days of the February earthquake but insisted the situation was quickly brought under control.

Some also are questioning whether Erdogan would agree to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose. In 2019, he challenged the results of a local election in Istanbul after his ruling party lost the mayoral seat there, only to suffer an even more embarrassing defeat in the second balloting.

Source: Euronews

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Anies Baswedan has become the first Indonesian presidential candidate to make his vice-presidential nominee official by his selection the past weekend of Muhaimin Iskandar from the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Islamic mass movement. ALEXANDER R. ARIFIANTO argues that this nomination highlights the importance of NU’s support in next year’s presidential election. He believes both Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto are likely to also consider nominating an NU-affiliated politician as running mate.

Anies Baswedan has formally announced Muhaimin Iskandar, chairperson of the National Awakening Party (PKB) and a high-profile Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) politician, as his vice-presidential nominee. This decision may pressure his two presidential opponents, Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto, to nominate an NU politician as their running mate. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

On 1 September 2023, the Democratic Party – one of the political parties that had supported the presidential candidacy of Anies Baswedan – announced it was withdrawing its endorsement. The decision was made after the party received news that the former Jakarta governor had decided to pick Muhaimin Iskandar, chairperson of the National Awakening Party (PKB), as his vice-presidential nominee.

Democrat Party officials asserted that the party decided to withdraw its endorsement of Anies because the latter allegedly broke an earlier pledge to select Agus Yudhoyono – the party’s chairperson and the eldest son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono – as his running mate. At the same time that the Democrats announced their withdrawal from Anies’s Coalition for Change (Koalisi Perubahan), party officials also announced the party was now exploring new coalition partners to nominate their own presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

The following day, the Anies–Muhaimin pairing was formally announced at a news conference in Surabaya. This announcement made Anies the first presidential candidate to formally announce his vice-presidential nominee, ahead of the official candidacy filing period, which would start on 19 October 2023 and end a week later. So far none of his two opponents – respectively, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo – has made his choice of running mate official.

Anies’s decision to select Muhaimin as his running mate testifies to the electoral significance of PKB – but more importantly, to the significance of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Islamic organisation, which claims more than 90 million followers. PKB is semi-officially affiliated with NU. Election analysts predict that next year’s presidential election will most likely be decided on the basis of results from East Java and Central Java provinces. Both provinces have, respectively, 31.5 million and 28.2 million eligible voters, making up a total of 59.7 million voters. It is estimated that approximately two-thirds of the residents of both provinces are affiliated with NU. These two factors – the size of the combined voter base and the proportion affiliated with NU – help to explain why Anies decided to select Muhaimin as his vice-presidential nominee over Agus.

Muhaimin is not only the PKB chair and a high-profile NU politician; recent opinion polls have shown him to be highly favoured as a prospective vice-presidential nominee, especially within NU strongholds in Central Java and East Java. A February 2023 survey by Saiful Mujani Research Consultancy (SMRC) indicated that at 18.2%, Muhaimin ranks first among NU-affiliated politicians in terms of their electability. He is followed by Mahfud MD, coordinating minister of political, legal and security affairs, at 18% and Khofifah Indar Parawansa, governor of East Java, at 15.4%.

However, an Anies–Muhaimin presidential pairing also carries several drawbacks. Firstly, while NU is the largest Indonesian Islamic organisation, it is also highly factionalised. Muhaimin is estranged from the current NU leadership, headed by Yahya Cholil Staquf. Yahya responded to Anies’s official announcement of the choice of Muhaimin as running mate by issuing a statement that NU was a politically neutral organisation and that “any politician who runs for an office while claiming a NU affiliation only expresses their personal opinion, since NU does not issue any political endorsement”.

Consequently, NU followers’ support for the Anies–Muhaimin pair is far from unanimous. A survey conducted in July 2023 by Indikator Politik – another leading Indonesian polling firm – found that only 25% of voters from PKB planned to vote for Anies in the forthcoming presidential election, 40% planned to vote for Ganjar, while 30.5% planned to vote for Prabowo.

Secondly, Anies picked Muhaimin with a view to strengthening his credentials as a moderate Muslim since NU has long been considered a moderate Islamic organisation which promotes pluralism and tolerance towards non-Muslim minorities. However, another member of the coalition supporting his candidacy is the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), a party with conservative Islamist credentials. The same Indikator survey showed that in contrast to PKB/NU voters, 68.6% of PKS voters were planning to vote for Anies in the presidential election.

PKB/NU and PKS have long been in a tug-of-war over the future direction of Islam in Indonesia. Supporters of PKB and PKS have long detested one another. NU’s senior clerics have discouraged their followers from joining PKS “at the risk of endangering their own faith”. In turn, PKS leaders have criticised NU chair Yahya for his 2018 visit to Israel when he was then NU’s general secretary.

So far, PKS leaders have reaffirmed their commitment to backing Anies’s presidential candidacy. However, they have also said Muhaimin’s vice-presidential nomination would need to be reviewed and approved by the party’s religious advisory council (majelis syuro), which is the ultimate decision-making authority within PKS. It is not clear whether the party will continue to endorse Anies’s presidential bid if the board rejects Muhaimin’s nomination.

Muhaimin’s selection as Anies’s vice-presidential nominee means both Ganjar and Prabowo are also under pressure to nominate an NU politician as their vice-presidential candidate in order to shore up support among NU-affiliated voters. Ganjar, who so far is only backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and is seemingly losing momentum in recent opinion polls, is under more intense pressure than Prabowo to do so. He could reach out to Mahfud MD, given that the latter is the only NU-affiliated politician who could match Muhaimin’s popularity among prospective NU voters. In addition to being from NU, Mahfud has a close relationship with civil society activists and could shore up Ganjar’s support among progressive-leaning Indonesian voters.

Yenny Wahid, daughter of former president and NU chair Abdurrahman Wahid, is another attractive vice-presidential nominee for Ganjar to consider. Yenny is currently executive director of the Wahid Foundation, named after her late father, who was widely known as a progressive leader. Hence, she is also a prospective vice-presidential candidate who could win support from progressive-leaning NU and nationalist voters if she runs with Ganjar.

Meanwhile, Prabowo has two options to respond to Anies’s decision. His first option is to continue his plan to run with Gibran Rakabuming, President Jokowi’s eldest son, who is the current mayor of Solo. By nominating Gibran as his running mate, Prabowo could win a sizeable vote share in Central Java from among voters who are aligned with Jokowi. Nonetheless, a Prabowo–Gibran coalition would only be viable if the Constitutional Court decides in favour of lowering the age of presidential and vice-presidential nominees to 35 years of age, a decision that is still pending.

Without a favourable Constitutional Court ruling, Prabowo would have to nominate another politician as his vice-presidential candidate. In these circumstances, most analysts consider State-owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir to be his most likely vice-presidential nominee. However, despite being appointed as an honorary member of Banser, the paramilitary arm of NU’s youth wing, Ansor, Erick Thohir is not formally affiliated with NU. Should Prabowo feel the need to appoint an NU-affiliated politician as running mate, he would most likely reach out to Khofifah or Yenny.

By nominating Muhaimin as his vice-presidential candidate, Anies hopes to gain a significant electoral boost in provinces where a sizeable number of voters are affiliated with NU. However, infighting between various NU figures and NU’s tenuous relations with PKS are likely to result in a smaller number of NU voters supporting Anies’s candidacy during the first round of election, scheduled for 14 February 2024. Many NU voters would most likely end up backing Ganjar or Prabowo instead.

Nonetheless, Anies’s nomination of Muhaimin highlights the importance of electoral support from the largest Indonesian Islamic organisation for the upcoming presidential election. It would certainly put pressure on both of Anies’s opponents to also nominate an NU-affiliated politician as running mate.

By: Alexander R. ARIFIANTO is Senior Fellow in the Indonesia Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

Source

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Campaign songs waft through the air, political billboards and brightly coloured bunting dot the town centre, and campaign offices pulse with activity in the sunny port city of Mersin on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.

Opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — Turkey’s leader for two decades — are locked in a tightly fought race for the presidency ahead of the May 14 vote. That has prompted a grassroots drive to win over voters in Mersin, the capital of a swing province whose population has swelled with people who fled a catastrophic earthquake in February.

Serdar Tatar, who runs a butcher’s shop in central Mersin, previously voted for Erdogan’s Justice and Development party (AKP) but has now changed course, in part because of his financial struggles in a country where inflation is running at an annual rate of 43.7 per cent.

“There is no prosperity . . . the rich get richer, the lower class is crushed,” he said late last month. “I will vote for Kılıçdaroğlu.”

Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu are duelling to secure more than half the votes in the presidential race to avoid an unprecedented run-off. But Wolfango Piccoli, co-president for political risk at advisory group Teneo, said the contest was “super tight”. While polling has historically been patchy, some analysts suggest this will be Erdoğan’s toughest-ever contest.

Tatar is not alone in his anger over the state of the economy. The election comes at a time when many Turkish families are struggling with runaway inflation, while criticism is rising over the government’s tightening grip on the media and other institutions.

Kılıçdaroğlu has united six parties with widely different ideologies to wage a stiff resistance campaign against Erdoğan. Most polls show the opposition leader, a mild-mannered former economist, to be ahead of the more pugnacious president.

Senior officials in the opposition alliance say they are cautiously optimistic that Kılıçdaroğlu can win, although most also acknowledge Erdoğan is a shrewd campaigner who can deploy the full arsenal of the state. Kılıçdaroğlu told the Financial Times last week that he expected a mostly free voting process but did not trust Turkey’s top election board, warning that it could intervene if Erdoğan loses.

Erdoğan received extensive local media coverage last week after inaugurating the country’s first nuclear power reactor, a Russian-built plant near Mersin. He spoke via video link after he became ill with what the government described as stomach flu.

Polls indicate both men will struggle to secure 50 per cent of the vote since several other candidates are also vying for the presidency.

“For [the] first time in [the] past 20 years, Erdoğan is starting the race not in the lead but as the follower. So the opposition needs to defend its support . . . this time it’s Erdoğan who has to swing votes,” said Can Selçuki of consultancy Istanbul Economics Research.

If no candidate captures half the vote, a run-off will be held on May 28. This would mark the first time Turkey has gone to a second round since a new presidential system took effect in 2017.

“A second round is one of the few almost certainties we have,” said Piccoli.

Selim Koru, an analyst at the Ankara-based Tepav think-tank, said that while voters’ behaviour in any second round would be hard to predict, the results of the parliamentary vote — to be held at the same time as the first-round presidential ballot — would probably play a role.

The People’s Alliance, a coalition of the AKP and the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement party (MHP), at present controls the legislative branch. Polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu’s “table of six”, formed of his left-leaning Republican People’s party (CHP), the nationalist Good party and four smaller groups, is trailing Erdogan’s coalition in the parliamentary race.

Koru said that if the People’s Alliance won parliament, it could provide a major boon to Turkey’s longstanding president. “Erdogan’s pathway to victory really can’t be a first-round win — that’s not realistic,” Koru said. “He needs to get parliament in [the] first round, then in [the] second round, argue ‘Vote for me, or else we’ll have a divided government’.”

In Mersin late last month, a truck bearing the face of Kılıçdaroğlu loudly played a catchy anthem promising “spring will come again”. A parliamentary candidate for his CHP party walked door to door, shaking hands and handing out flyers.

In the 2018 election, Erdoğan and former presidential candidate Muharrem İnce received almost the same share of votes in the wider Mersin province — highlighting the importance of the area ahead of this month’s election.

On a single day, candidates from at least four parties canvassed businesses in an attempt to secure votes.

“People want something to change, for the order to change,” said Gülcan Kış, a CHP candidate for parliament, after addressing more than two dozen people in a leafy, upscale part of Mersin.

Kış pushed back against widespread criticism that Kılıçdaroğlu lacked the charisma to energise voters. The 74-year-old opposition leader has sought to turn his studious air to his advantage, posting campaign Twitter videos from an office surrounded by books.

One monologue on Kılıçdaroğlu’s Alevi faith, something many supporters worried would be used against him in a predominantly Sunni Muslim country, has garnered more than 114mn views.

“[Kılıçdaroğlu] brought . . . very ‘un-like-minded’ people together and took a step towards changing the order and system of this country by gathering around the same table,” Kış said. “In fact, this turned into a struggle beyond Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s struggle, and it turned into a struggle for integrity.”

At Tatar’s butcher’s shop, a pensioner contemplating the poultry offerings was distraught about the economic situation for ordinary Turks and suggested that her patience was running out.

“I used to have chicken once a week. Now only once a month,” said the woman, who asked not to be named. “This government hasn’t changed things in 20 years — why will things be different now?”

Across town in the market, however, not all locals were feeling the economic pain. A shopper perusing tomatoes said the prices were “quite reasonable for the season”.

And Firdevs Aktürk, an MP candidate for Erdoğan’s AKP party, defended the president’s unconventional economic policies.

Strolling through stalls of fruit and vegetables and shaking hands with stallholders and patrons, she said that Turkey’s problems were not too different from those of other nations: “There is an economic crisis in all countries in the world right now.”

“Our president is personally making announcements [on how to improve the economy],” she added. “And he will announce more in the future.”

Source: Financial Times

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Turkey elections 2023: More than five million first-time voters are set to participate in the upcoming elections on May 14th in Turkey, with their turnout expected to have a significant impact on the outcome of the tight race between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP. 

Ozer Sencar, the director of the Turkish polling organisation MetroPoll, reports that 78 per cent of voters in the 18-24 age group have expressed an intention to vote, with half of young voters preferring Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan, on the other hand, is expected to receive about 30 per cent of the vote in this age group. According to experts, young people in Turkey are expressing a growing sense that meritocracy is no longer sufficient to rise up the ranks in public institutions.

Top rivals try to woo young voters

Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have both attempted to appeal to the youth vote in recent years. Teknofest, the country’s largest technology event, has been organised by the government and Selcuk Bayraktar, the man behind Turkey’s drone programme and Erdogan’s son-in-law, with the aim of drawing in young talent from across the country. The event has become an opportunity for the government to demonstrate that it can still generate ideas and events meant to inspire young people in the fields of cutting-edge technology.

According to Sencar, Erdogan is trying to appeal to the nationalistic feelings of the new generation with his campaign focused on the defence industry. Technological developments such as the defence industry, Sencar says, are also intended to increase young voters’ positive expectations for the future with Erdogan. Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu has sought to appeal to young people’s sense of freedom.

On the campaign trail, the opposition presidential candidate makes heart emojis with his hands and tells young people they can criticise him as much as they want without fear.

Why Turkey’s elections are important for the world?

Home to 85 million people, Turkey wields significant power on the world stage. It is a NATO member having strong defence ties with Russia, and for which it has been at loggerheads with the American administrations. Turkey is also sitting over Sweden’s application to join NATO over the latter’s alleged support to the Kurdish organisations that Ankara views as terrorists.

Turkey, under Erdogan, has turned hostile towards India, and it has backed Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir unacceptable to New Delhi.

So, the world, including policymakers in Delhi, would like to see a pragmatic administration take over the reins in Ankara. However, it remains to be seen what card the majority of the Turkish voters have up their sleeves.

Source: WION

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