Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the Tajik president has been building for so many years.

Next year will mark thirty years of Emomali Rahmon’s presidency in Tajikistan, now the only country in Central Asia that has not seen a change of leadership since the early 1990s. Unsurprisingly, there have been rumors of an imminent transition of power for a decade.

The name of the successor is no secret: it’s Rahmon’s son, thirty-six-year-old Rustam Emomali. But there is no consensus within the president’s large family over the succession. Some of the president’s other children have their own ambitions to run the country, which could upset plans for the transition.

President Rahmon is seventy-one years old, and has reportedly suffered numerous health issues. Arrangements for the transition have long been in place, but events keep getting in the way of its implementation: first the pandemic and its economic fallout, and then the street protests in neighboring Kazakhstan in January 2022, which frightened the Tajik leader and persuaded him it was not a good time to step down. Even Turkmenistan has seen a power transition in recent years. Now Tajikistan is expected to implement its own in 2024.

Rustam has already headed a number of government agencies. Since 2017, he has been mayor of Dushanbe: a post he has combined since 2020 with that of speaker of the upper house of parliament, to whom power would automatically pass if the current president were to step down early.

His supporters argue that as the capital’s mayor, he has improved the city, supported youth initiatives, and started to form his own team of young technocrats. Some are counting on him to carry out at least limited reforms once he is in power, such as those seen in neighboring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Not everyone believes Rustam is ready to take over, however. The future president is an unknown quantity for most Tajiks. All of his public appearances are prerecorded and accompanied by information read out by the broadcaster, meaning that people have not even heard him speak. His nickname on social media is “the great mute.”

More worryingly, the heir apparent has reportedly shot and wounded two people: his own uncle in 2008, and—just last year—the head of the State Committee for National Security, Saimumin Yatimov, supposedly for refusing to carry out orders.

There are those within the presidential family who do not want to see Rustam succeed his father because they fear losing prestigious posts in government and business. They are indignant that there are no relatives within the team he is building. The current president cannot possibly keep everyone happy, and this could threaten the transition, as ambitious clan members prepare to battle it out for the top job in order to retain their privileges.

Rahmon has seven daughters and two sons. The most ambitious of them is generally considered to be the second daughter Ozoda, who has headed up the presidential administration since 2016. She is very experienced, works well with her staff, and has the trust of the security services. Unsurprisingly, given the alleged shooting incident, there is no love lost between Rustam and the country’s main security official Yatimov, who has reportedly been paving the way for Ozoda’s candidacy. In addition, her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is also considered a very influential figure, having been deputy chair of the country’s central bank for over seven years.

Another contender for the presidency could be Rahmon’s fifth daughter, Ruhshona, a seasoned diplomat who is well versed in Tajikistan’s political affairs. Her husband is the influential oligarch Shamsullo Sohibov, who made his fortune thanks to his family connection to the president. Together with his brothers, he controls entire sectors of the economy, including transport, media, and banking. Change at the top could deprive the Sohibov clan of both influence and money, so Ruhshona and her husband may well throw their hats into the ring.

They might get the backing of Rahmon’s other children, who also control various sectors of the economy, including air travel (the third daughter, Tahmina) and pharmacies (the fourth daughter, Parvina). There are also plenty of Rahmon’s more distant relatives who owe their fortunes to the president and fear losing their positions under his successor.

Rahmon has relied on the loyalty of various relatives to ensure the stable functioning of his regime. But overly vociferous squabbles within the family could destabilize the situation, and for precisely this reason, Rahmon has tried to temper their ambition. Ruhshona, for example, was sent to the UK as Tajik ambassador to stop her from interfering in the plans for the transition. Her oligarch husband went with her.

Nor is the heir apparent himself outside the fray. There is evidence that Rustam was involved in leaking information to the media about his sister Ozoda’s alleged affair with her driver: something that, in patriarchal Tajikistan, caused serious damage to her reputation. There are also rumors that Ozoda’s main ally Yatimov will be retired from his post as head of the security services and replaced with a close friend of Rustam, Shohruh Saidov.

Right now, international circumstances are conducive to a swift transition. Tajikistan’s relations with its trickiest neighbors, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan, are improving. While the Taliban has yet to be recognized as the legitimate Afghan government by Dushanbe, both sides agreed to strengthen economic ties during the first visit to Tajikistan by a delegation from the radical Islamist movement in March this year. Meanwhile, the Tajik government has pledged to resolve the border dispute with Kyrgyzstan—an issue that has led to several armed clashes in the last three years—by spring 2024. Rahmon is clearly trying to hand over a stable country to his son.

The situation at home, however, is more complicated. There is also considerable opposition to Rustam’s candidacy among the regional elites, who have long supported Rahmon in exchange for access to state resources, and are now seeing many of the most lucrative cash flows appropriated by the presidential family. A transition of power could be an opportune moment to express their displeasure.

Events in Gorno-Badakhshan in spring 2022 were a stark warning of the dangers of that displeasure. After the civil war that ravaged the country in the early 1990s, many of its field commanders settled in the region. Over time, they became informal leaders of the local communities, helping to solve problems that the central government was ignoring, sometimes strong-arming local officials into making the required decision. Rahmon ordered several security operations to rid Gorno-Badakhshan of this dual power system, only for it to reemerge further down the line.

Last spring, protests erupted there after a local man was killed by law enforcement officers. The unrest lasted for several months until Rahmon crushed it by force. Many of the activists were killed or imprisoned, while others fled the country, and the region was brought back under Dushanbe’s control. But the anger simmering in the region could boil over again at the first sign of conflict.

For now, the other regions remain loyal to the regime, but that could change after the power transition if the local elites feel they are not getting sufficient state resources.

By directing all the streams of income and control of the country to his own relatives, Rahmon has painted himself into a corner. Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the president has been building for so many years. Power transitions rarely go to plan in Central Asia, and Tajikistan may be no exception.

Source

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When Ranil Wickremesinghe took over as Sri Lanka’s president in July after a popular uprising ousted his predecessor, the South Asian island nation was engulfed in its worst economic meltdown in 75 years.

Since then, President Wickremesinghe has managed to a keep a lid on mass protests, improve supplies of essentials and on Monday, secured a nearly $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that opens the door to restructuring about $58 billion of debt and receive funding from other lenders.

On March 20, the IMF approved a $3 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to support Sri Lanka amid its economic crisis. The approval is expected to pave the way for other financial institutions to extend support to the bankrupt South Asian country.

He has done that despite a deeply unpopular government, his own party commanding just one seat in the 225-member parliament and having to rely for support on the party of the man he replaced.

Hours-long power cuts and queues for fuel that led to the downfall of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa are gone, thanks partly to a fuel rationing system. Tourists are returning, remittances are recovering and foreign exchange reserves are rising, though the economy is still contracting. But due largely to significant hikes in income taxes and power tariffs that were needed to get the IMF on board, the government of the 73-year-old is no favourite of the people. According to a “Mood of the Nation” poll run in February by private think-tank Verité Research, the government’s approval rating was 10%, the same as in October but higher than an all-time low of 3% in June, when Rajapaksa was in power. Only 4% were satisfied with the way things were going in Sri Lanka, down from 7% in October but higher than 2% in June.

There are no known approval ratings for Wickremesinghe as president. “He’s ready to face the people’s anger in the short term, to ensure long-term stability and growth in the country,” said Dinouk Colombage, Wickremesinghe’s director of international affairs. “Even though the president only has one seat in parliament, him carrying forward his agenda, bringing forth the reforms, once the results start showing, I think the people will come out in open support of him.”

Born into a prominent family of politicians and business-people with large interests in the media, the lawyer and six-time prime minister has little support beyond wealthy urban voters. His ability to make policy depends to a great extent on the support of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party, largely controlled by the Rajapaksa family.

For now, Wickremesinghe is enjoying that support, and he said on Sunday that his country was on the right track There’s fuel now, there’s electricity, there’s fertiliser and by April, there will be enough rice and other foodstuff,” he said at an event in Colombo. “We will no longer be declared a bankrupt nation, but a nation that can restructure its debts.”

The bailout is expected to catalyse additional external support, with funding expected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to the tune of $3.75 billion, the IMF said in a statement.

In recent months, Wickremesinghe successfully negotiated economic support from top lenders China, India and Japan, culminating in the IMF bailout. He flew to Japan in October to apologise for the cancellation of Japanese-funded projects under Rajapaksa, which convinced Tokyo to back Sri Lanka’s request for the IMF bailout.

The Paris Club of creditors, which includes Japan, earlier this year gave financing assurances to support the IMF deal. A Japan-funded $1.8 billion light-railway project, which was suspended in 2019, is among infrastructure projects that Sri Lanka is now trying to restart.

But Sri Lanka still needs to renegotiate its debt, a potentially drawn-out process where Wickremesinghe, who is also the finance minister, will have to deal with demands from China, India and other creditors. He still has to turn around the economy, which shrank 7.8% in 2022 and is expected to contract by 3% this year.

Implementing further reforms under the IMF programme, reducing record-high interest rates and controlling inflation will also continue to pose challenges for Wickremesinghe, who has faced trade union strikes after the tax and power hikes.

Critics say Wickremesinghe’s economy-first approach ignores political and systemic reforms – like stronger anti-corruption measures and more transparency in government decision-making – as demanded by mass protesters who banded together as the “Aragalaya” movement last year.

“One year on, there is no real structural change in governance or system change,” said Bhavani Fonseka, senior researcher at Colombo-based Centre for Policy Alternatives. “The president does take this line that his priority is addressing the economy over everything else, but you can’t have that silo-ed approach and think people are going to be okay with it.”

A crisis-weary public may still have to absorb years of continuing hardship as Sri Lanka tries to fix its economy during the four-year IMF programme, warned Jayadeva Uyangoda, a senior political analyst. “Wickremesinghe has managed to neutralise the Aragalaya and that was a major success, but the economic and social crisis goes on,” he said.

“Economic stability will take at least another couple of years.”

Source : Reuters

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The volume of Iran and Turkey’s trade has significantly surged, the chairman of Iran-Turkey Joint Chamber of Commerce said, adding that Ankara’s non-cooperation with US in implementing sanctions imposed against Tehran is a promising for boosting bilateral trade ties.

Speaking in an interview with IRNA on Saturday, Mehrdad Sa’adat pointed to the growing trend of trade between Iran and Turkey and stated, “We should wait for the result of the upcoming presidential election in Turkey.”

After holding this important political event in Turkey, “We can continue intensive consultations in the field of expanding bilateral trade exchanges.”

Last month, Turkey announced it would not cooperate with the United States and other countries in implementing sanctions against Iran, which is promising news for the development of trade ties between Tehran and Ankara, Sa’adat underlined.

The Iran-Turkey Joint Chamber of Commerce in cooperation with the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran (TPOI) has taken effective measures in this regard, he said, adding that continuation of talks to finalize the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) between the two countries is one of the issues that should be taken into consideration after the presidential election in Turkey.

He also pointed to the dispatch of more commercial envoys to neighboring Turkey and added that a proposal has been proposed by the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) to send a commercial envoy to Istanbul, which is regarded as the main trade and economic center of Turkey.

With such measures, it is hoped that the country would take the maximum advantage of import and export capacities in this neighboring state, the chairman of the Iran-Turkey Chamber of Commerce added.

Source: Tasnim News

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Kenes Rakishev is a prominent entrepreneur, investor & philanthropist with interests in mining, high tech and innovative technologies.

Kenes Rakishev’s thoughts about Electric Vehicle

Companies along the EV supply chain need further support and investment, if we are to solve EV issues and encourage faster uptake, Kenes Rakishev says.

Although the pandemic has caused demand for the Electric Vehicle to fall, the outlook for EVs looks bright: with enhanced globalisation pushing the industry’s growth, government subsidy packages, and more EV investment, the rising valuations are deserved. The EV industry is providing a solution to the most pressing concerns of our time, including climate change, and unemployment caused by the pandemic.

Kenes Rakishev:

European governments are leading the way in recovery initiatives for the EV sector, from manufacturing to sales. This has led to some fantastic opportunities. Investors are seeing favourable returns; the international community is on the way to achieving climate change goals; the EV industry is benefitting from more funding; individuals are finding employment in a fantastic field of work during a general economic downturn.

Who is Kenes Rakishev?

Kenes (Kenges) Rakishev is a prominent investor and entrepreneur regarded as one of the most influential businessmen in Kazakhstan. Kenes Rakishev has business interests spanning technology, oil & gas, finance, shipbuilding, and metals & mining industries, and serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors of several industry leaders including Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries, SAT & Company, Net Element and Vyborg Shipyard.

Kenes Rakishev is also Chairman and Co-Founder of Sirin Labs, which has developed the world’s first blockchain smart phone Finney, and Managing Partner at Singulariteam-1 and Singulariteam-2 venture capital funds that focus on innovative tech companies.

Source: Talk-Finance

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The Turkish securities regulator fined JPMorgan Securities PLC over alleged irregularities in stock market dealings.

The regulator, known as SPK, said late Friday that it imposed a penalty of 32.8 million lira ($1.7 million) on the bank for violating an article covering “disruptive equity transactions.”

JPMorgan didn’t immediately respond to emailed requests for comment early Saturday.

In 2019, JPMorgan faced a previous investigation amid turbulence for the Turkish lira.

The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, known as BDDK, said at that time that JPMorgan analysts who recommended selling the lira against the dollar had issued a note featuring “misguiding and manipulative content that resulted in volatility in markets and hurt the reputation of Turkish banks.”

Source: Al Arabiya

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A government decision to offer free natural gas for one month and a discount for a year will help consumers to save 40 billion Turkish Liras (around $2.1 billion) in gas costs, according to Mustafa Yilmaz, head of the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK), Trend reports citing Hurriyet Daily News.

Last month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that consumers will not be charged for the natural gas consumption at all residences in Türkiye for one month.

Additionally, the cost of natural gas required for kitchen and hot water consumption, which is equivalent to an average of 25 cubic meters per month, will be deducted from the bills for one year.

The respective presidential decree on the natural gas was published in the Official Gazette.

The free natural gas scheme will be in effect between April 24 and May 31, while the discounted price arrangement will last until May 1, 2024, said Yılmaz.

There are 19.7 million natural gas subscribers, and 2.8 million houses are connected to the national grid, Yilmaz added. “We have around 320,000 pre-paid consumers.”

“Natural gas distribution companies will pay the utmost attention and we will closely follow this process,” Yilmaz said.

Source: Trend

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China’s state-run foreign-language news channel, CGTN, has reported that China and five Central Asian nations have vowed to further enhance their trade and investment cooperation. Commerce ministers from the six countries reportedly met on via video link on April 18 to discuss the plans, in order that announcements concerning them could be made at the upcoming China-Central Asia Summit due to be held next month.

China and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan agreed to establish the mechanism of the China + Central Asia Summit last year. The commerce ministers of the five Central Asian countries agreed to sign a series of cooperation agreements during the coming event.

China, Central Asian regional trade hit US$70 billion in 2022

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said China and the five Central Asian countries have achieved fruitful results in their cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. According to him, China’s trade volume with Central Asia over the first two months of this year has grown by 22% year-on-year, showing strong momentum in development with improved infrastructure. Cross-border e-commerce between China and Central Asia for example reportedly increased by 95% in 2022, while nearly 300 Central Asian enterprises joined China’s e-commerce platforms.

Wang said that products imported from the Central Asian countries are becoming popular among Chinese consumers. He said China will hold live-streaming sales events in May to further promote Central Asian goods.

China’s trade with Central Asia’s nations last year was valued at US$70.2 billion, a historical high. China’s imports of agricultural, energy and mineral products from the Central Asian five rose more than 50%, while the export of Chinese mechanical and electronic products to the Central Asian countries has risen 42%.

Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Trade and Integration said that Central Asia is now one of the most rapidly developing regions in the world with a strategic geographical location and huge economic potential. “Central Asia was the first region to implement the Belt and Road Initiative. And thanks to our joint efforts, cooperation has been restored to the pre-pandemic level and we’ve already witnessed a substantial increase in trade,” the Kazakh minister was cited as saying.

The first China-Central Asia Summit is due to take place in Xi’an with China hosting. Dates are still being confirmed but it has been pencilled in for May. Xi’an is considered the starting point of the ancient Silk Road and has many artifacts from that time.

Source: Silk Road Briefing

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Turks began voting on Sunday in a presidential runoff that could see Tayyip Erdogan extend his rule into a third decade and persist with Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian path, muscular foreign policy and unorthodox economic governance.

Erdogan, 69, defied opinion polls and came out comfortably ahead with an almost five-point lead over his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the first round on May 14. But he fell just short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

Voting began at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) and will finish at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). The outcome was expected to start becoming clear by early evening.

Source: Saltwire

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Turks voted on Sunday in a presidential runoff that could see Tayyip Erdogan extend his rule into a third decade and persist with Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian path, muscular foreign policy and unorthodox economic governance.

Erdogan, 69, defied opinion polls and came out ahead with an almost five-point lead over his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the first round on May 14. But he fell just short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, in a race with profound consequences for Turkey itself and global geopolitics.

His unexpectedly strong showing amid a deep cost of living crisis, and a win in parliamentary elections for a coalition of his conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), the nationalist MHP and others, buoyed the veteran campaigner who says a vote for him is a vote for stability.

Polls closed at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT) after opening at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT). The outcome is expected to start becoming clear by early evening local time. Polling stations were reportedly quieter in many places than two weeks ago, when turnout was 89%.

The election will decide not only who leads Turkey, a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed after its currency plunged to one-tenth of its value against the dollar in a decade, and the shape of its foreign policy, which has seen Turkey anger the West by cultivating ties with Russia and Gulf states.

Erdogan supporters gathered at a school near his home on the Asian side of Istanbul where he voted around midday (0900 GMT), before shaking hands and talking with the crowd.

“With God’s permission he will win. The country has many problems but if anyone can solve them, he can,” said Nuran, who came to vote with her three-year-old daughter.

In Ankara, 32-year-old Gulcan Demiroz said she hoped the vote would bring change and that her friends would otherwise go abroad, as she was considering doing, for a better life.

“This country deserves better. We need a collective of minds, not a powerful, cold, distant man who rules single handedly,” said Gulcan, who works in the textile industry, after voting for Kilicdaroglu.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, voted in Ankara. He is the candidate of a six-party opposition alliance, and leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP) created by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. His camp has struggled to regain momentum after trailing Erdogan in the first round.

The initial election showed larger-than-expected support for nationalism – a powerful force in Turkish politics which has been hardened by years of hostilities with Kurdish militants, an attempted coup in 2016 and the influx of millions of refugees from Syria since war began there in 2011.

Turkey is the world’s largest refugee host, with some 5 million migrants, of whom 3.3 million are Syrians, according to Interior Ministry data.

Third-place presidential candidate and hardline nationalist Sinan Ogan said he endorsed Erdogan based on a principle of “non-stop struggle (against) terrorism”, referring to pro-Kurdish groups. He achieved 5.17% of the vote.

Umit Ozdag, leader of the anti-immigrant Victory Party (ZP), announced a deal declaring ZP’s support for Kilicdaroglu, after the CHP leader said he would repatriate immigrants. The ZP won 2.2% of votes in the parliamentary election.

A survey by pollster Konda put support for Erdogan at 52.7% and Kilicdaroglu at 47.3% after distributing undecided voters. The survey was carried out on May 20-21, before Ogan and Ozdag revealed their endorsements.

Another key is how Turkey’s Kurds, at about a fifth of the population, will vote.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party endorsed Kilicdaroglu in the first round but, after his move to win nationalist votes, it did not explicitly name him and just urged voters to reject Erdogan’s “one-man regime”.

‘MORE ERDOGAN’

Turkey’s president commands fierce loyalty from pious Turks who once felt disenfranchised in secular Turkey and his political career has survived the failed coup and corruption scandals.

“Turkey has a longstanding democratic tradition and a longstanding nationalist tradition, and right now it’s clearly the nationalist one that’s winning out,” said Nicholas Danforth, Turkey historian and non-resident fellow at think tank ELIAMEP. “Erdogan has fused religious and national pride, offering voters an aggressive anti-elitism.”

“People know who he is and what his vision for the country is, and it seems a lot of them approve.”

Erdogan has taken control of most of Turkey’s institutions and sidelined liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch, in its World Report 2022, said Erdogan’s government has set back Turkey’s human rights record by decades.

The domination of the country’s media by pro-government TV stations and newspapers gave Erdogan a major advantage over his opponent in the election campaign, with his frequent speeches all covered live while his rival received limited coverage.

In February, earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people and devastated southern Turkey and this had been expected to add to Erdogan’s challenge in the elections. However, his AKP remained dominant across that region on May 14.

But if Erdogan goes, it will be largely because Turks have seen their prosperity, equality and ability to meet basic needs decline, with inflation topping 85% last October.

Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant, has pledged to roll back much of Erdogan’s changes to Turkish domestic, foreign and economic policies.

He would also revert to the parliamentary system of governance, from Erdogan’s executive presidential system, narrowly passed in a referendum in 2017.

Source: Saltwire

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ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The governor of Turkey’s Sirnak province on Friday announced the discovery of new oil reserves and expressed hope for the economic future of the province amid a cost of living crisis.

“Right now in eight regions of Sirnak explorations are being carried out,” Governor Osman Bilgin told reporters. “This means that exploration-related operations are being carried out in all of Sirnak’s mountains.”

Sirnak is a small province in southeastern Turkey, bordering the Kurdistan Region.

In December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of an oil field in Sirnak’s Gabar Mountain, containing an estimated 150 million barrels valued at approximately $12 billion.

According to Bilgin, the latest discovery is estimated to be around five to 10 times the volume found in Gabar.

He said the discovery is good news for the province. “From now on Sirnak will not discuss unemployment or issues. It will discuss beautiful things, such as sport and production,” he said.

Turkey is struggling with crippling economic woes with its currency losing value and people facing soaring inflation and a cost of living crisis.

On Friday, the Turkish lira plummeted to an all-time low, with 20 liras trading for one US dollar.

Source: Rudaw

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