If European countries don’t see defeat coming, we can’t turn the wheel to avoid it

I left my meeting with a senior French officer feeling that the west is so weak it scarcely exists any more. “The West”, a longtime object of obsession for anti-westerners from Egypt’s President Nasser to Vladimir Putin, has shrivelled to a small rump of countries squabbling with each other. At times they seem willing to let Ukraine lose its war.  

 I share the emotional impulse to keep intoning that Ukraine will win. But Panglossian war propaganda is becoming counterproductive. We need to see a possible defeat coming so that we can turn the wheel and avoid it. We can if we want to. 

I met the officer days after Emmanuel Macron suggested that Nato troops could be sent to Ukraine. As usual with France’s attempts to lead, most of its so-called allies responded by saying, in essence: “Shut up, France.” 

The officer thought Macron had spoken in desperation, compelled by French pessimism about Ukraine. Westerners have grown used to the war as a background rumble that never seems to change. One day, this could stop being true. Russian troops have a firepower advantage of perhaps five-to-one over Ukrainians.

Western countries are weak firstly because they lack allies. Non-aligned states in Asia, Africa and the Gulf never cared much about Ukraine’s struggle. They have been further alienated by western double standards over Israel’s killing of 30,000 Palestinians.

If western countries support human rights in Ukraine but not in Palestine, then they don’t support human rights.  Meanwhile, the US seems to be abandoning “The West” like a sinking ship leaving the rats. This goes beyond Donald Trump’s plan, as relayed by his chum Viktor Orbán, to “not give a single penny” to Ukraine if he becomes president again. Even if Trump loses and Republicans win just one chamber of Congress, they can keep blocking aid to Ukraine.  

The French long dreamt of Europe running its own military affairs without the US butting in. Now the dream is coming true, and it’s terrifying. Europeans cannot even agree whether this is an existential war for them (as eastern Europeans believe), a war of choice (as western countries seem to think) or a war to ignore (Olaf Scholz of Germany’s view). 

Western powers have often labelled wars existential — in Algeria, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq — only to abandon them after realising they were, in fact, wars of choice. European pacifists hope Ukraine’s war will remain similarly self-contained. Perhaps Putin might stop once he’s swallowed the country. After all, western domino theories proved wrong about Vietnam, too.

So uncommitted are western states to arming Ukraine that they are treating it as a public-spending programme of choice, one you can ditch when money gets tight, like the UK’s HS2 train line. It’s not merely that our countries are disunited. France itself — the one western military with much fighting experience this past decade, albeit in the Sahel — is disunited.

A contingent of Putinist French officers still admires Russia and would rather fight what it considers the “Islamic peril” inside France. And in 2027, Putin’s longtime admirer Marine Le Pen could become French president. Putin has another military advantage over us: his willingness to sacrifice his people. Russia might have suffered more casualties taking the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka than all western European deaths in combat put together in the past 50 years.

The French officer told me apologetically: “We’re an old continent, no longer used to making war.”  This is a backhanded tribute to the success of European societies. Much though western Europeans like to whine, their region may be the safest and most liveable in history. It’s the apotheosis of the humanistic project. But Putin suspects we treasure life too much to defend it.  

If he wins, that wouldn’t mean a new Iron Curtain descending across Europe. It would be more like a portable cotton curtain, blown around by Russia’s will. “The West” could shrink to a thin line stretching from Britain to (if we’re lucky) Poland. 

Happily, we can change course. Russia has a poorly trained army and a Canada-sized economy. “This should be feasible, easily,” says Steven Everts of the EU Institute for Security Studies. Victory would require western countries to send non-combat troops such as de-miners, trainers and vehicle engineers. Countries would need to follow Denmark in giving every shell in their cupboards to Ukraine.

Germany would have to send Taurus missiles. Replacing American support for Ukraine would cost the other Nato states about €65 per citizen per year. We could choose to let Ukraine win.

Source: Financial Times

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For ten years now, the authorities of Tajikistan have been engaged in forced assimilation of the ethnic Pamiri people, giving away the heartlands to China for debts,” Orzu M. shared with RFI – Radio France Internationale is a French news and current affairs public radio station that broadcasts worldwide.

RFI met with Orzu in Paris, sharing the fact that more and more Pamiris are leaving their native homes in Gorno-Badakhshan Mountainous Autonomous (GBAO) Region of Tajikistan; they are driven into exile by the persecution of the authorities, who are displacing indigenous peoples.

The Tajik government continues its repression against the Pamir minority group as part of Dushanbe’s efforts to quell the opposition to the ruling government in Tajikistan. The repressive actions included forced extradition, arbitrary arrest and harsh verdict to alleged Pamiri activists.

RFI: How did it come about that you, a defender of the rights of the Pamiri peoples, ended up in Paris?

Orzu M: I am a Pamiri, and for at least the past ten years, the authorities of Tajikistan have been engaged in the forced assimilation of our people. The Pamiri peoples are a national minority. We have our own language, different from Tajik, with several dialects (Pamiri languages belong to the Iranian linguistic group – RFI). Our religion is also different; Pamiris are Ismailis, which is a branch of Shiite Islam, whereas Tajiks, the titular nation, are Sunni. We practice a more secular form of Islam; women and men can be in the same prayer house. We don’t have mosques; we have Jamaats, where men and women gather, and everyone prays together. Pamiri women often do not wear a headscarf and dress in a more European style.

We have our own culture and traditions. Tajikistan is a multi-ethnic country with Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, Russians, and many other people living here, but we have our own autonomous region, Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO). And, of course, we are a mountainous people, which also creates distinct characteristics in our culture and traditions. There are approximately 200,000 Pamiris in total, but a significant portion of them is already in exile.

RFI: Why is there such strong emigration?

Orzu M: Emigration is indeed significant; villages are becoming empty, entire families are leaving, closing their homes, and fleeing to wherever they can, to Europe, to America. This situation has been ongoing for the past 10 years.

Ninety-three percent of our territory is covered by mountains. We are primarily engaged in livestock farming rather than agriculture, but most of the population is affected by unemployment, which is a significant problem. We have neither factories nor plants. The Aga Khan Foundation (Aga Khan Development Network, a network of private non-denominational development agencies founded by the spiritual leader of the Ismailis – RFI) is involved in the development of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast. Aga Khan IV built a university, a hospital, and is involved in cultural and educational programs. In Soviet times, every second person in our region had a higher education. The thing is, we are in a remote high-mountain region, and we have very harsh winter conditions, as well as overall challenging living conditions. The only way to make progress was to study, get an education, and then develop the region.

It turned out that in the last 10 years, we have been leaving Pamir; we are being displaced. The Tajikistan authorities want us to integrate and lose our identity, including our language.

Furthermore, our territories are essentially being handed over to China as a result of Tajikistan’s national debt. For example, the Murghab region, where Pamiri Kyrgyz people live, is rich in natural resources, such as gold, silver, and precious gemstones. It’s a mountainous area, and there are even precious stones. China understands that this is a very rich territory.

RFI: You say that the problems started 10 years ago. What happened at that time?

Orzu M: In 2012, the head of the State Committee for National Security (KNB) in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) was assassinated. He was simply eliminated, and the local people were accused. It was an intra-government dispute related to the criminal business, smuggling, and drug trafficking.

Pamir is a strategic location where the path to China goes, with the border with Afghanistan and the only place that did not submit to the authorities and resisted. The people were free, acted in their own way, and cherished this freedom. In other words, it was autonomy in the true sense. The government felt that they could enrich themselves in the region, and the president’s inner circle chose the events of 2012 as a pretext. That’s when we had a “special operation,” they removed informal leaders who were defending the people.

And this periodically continues to this day, in 2014, in 2018, in 2022. There were several attempts to pacify the people. It didn’t work. There were protests, and even attempts to communicate with the president and the establishment of commissions. In other words, it was such an oasis of democracy in Tajikistan, the only region that truly knew its rights and demanded their respect. And when it so happened that they did manage to suppress us, many people, in order not to submit, leave.      

RFI: How to explain the fact that Tajiks, who themselves are victims of persecution, oppress another minority?

Orzu M: I wouldn’t say that Tajiks oppress the people. Tajiks suffer even more than we do, and they have always suffered. We are the only region that openly and boldly talks about this. Tajiks tend to be more submissive; they are more adaptable. The temperament of the mountain peoples does not allow them to submit. But Tajiks have also always suffered from this regime, and there were events in Rasht, in the Sughd region, in Vahdat.

The authorities have broken the people and subdued them. All the terrible facts – rape, murder – were attributed to the lawlessness of ISIS terrorists. For the Tajik authorities, anyone who opposes them is labeled a terrorist.

RFI: Is Russia’s influence a factor in this?

Orzu M: We, the Pamiris, are a small community, and we all know each other. When the special operation in GBAO began, we realized that the only possibility was to shout, speak, and write. We have always won against the authorities with the information war. But now, the Tajik government has very strong support from Russia.

So-called “special operations,” similar to what Russia conducts in Ukraine, are carried out in our Pamir. It’s all part of the same Soviet playbook that Putin is spreading among authoritarian regimes. Emomali Rahmon, in order to pass power to his son, is creating all the conditions for the destruction of a free society, so that there are no people who can shout, speak, and obstruct his actions.

RFI: How has the war that Russia is conducting in Ukraine affected the situation?

Orzu M: It has made the situation even worse because the regime realized that if Ukraine wins, it will set an example for other nations, and everyone would strive for freedom. As a result, it has tightened its grip. For example, in GBAO, there are hardly any NGOs left; everything is closed.

A significant portion of civil society representatives are in prison. We have around 1,000 political prisoners who had an influence on the youth and held some authority. They were either imprisoned, disappeared without a trace, or emigrated.

RFI: Am I correct in understanding that fleeing to Russia is not possible?

Orzu M: There is no refuge for us in Russia. Many, even those with Russian citizenship, have been extradited to Tajikistan, where they are subjected to torture in prisons.

Russian citizenship is zero; it’s a fiction. There have been cases where people with Russian citizenship had it simply revoked, even though they grew up and lived their whole lives in Russia. The war in Ukraine has frightened our president, and he is afraid that this whole kingdom could disappear. Everything now depends on the outcome of the war, on Ukraine’s victory.

RFI: How does the proximity to Afghanistan affect the situation?

Orzu M: Afghanistan is a trump card for the Tajik authorities in order to promote the issue of terrorism, extremism, the influence of Islamists, and the movement of the Taliban to our borders in Europe. Although, in my opinion, such a threat does not currently exist. Badakhshan was divided by the Russian Empire along the Kokcha River, and now its southern part is in Afghanistan, while the northern part is in Tajikistan. Families were divided, and I still have relatives in Afghanistan. It’s just an opportunity to blackmail and use strong words in Europe, claiming that we are protecting the European Union from Taliban incursions and Islamists.

RFI: But is Islamism a problem in Tajikistan itself?

Orzu M: It’s a problem in Central Asia as a whole. In countries with dictatorial regimes, the youth turn to conservative Islam, Salafism, and mosques engage in propagandistic activities. This was never the case before; there used to be a secular state. Now, the youth don’t see a future and are searching for answers or simply escaping from this reality.

Poverty is rampant, and many become labor migrants, leaving their children with grandparents. Women, daughters-in-law, are oppressed within their husband’s families. This is the standard situation throughout Central Asia. The authorities have abandoned the people to their fate, leading to poverty, unemployment, and making the population vulnerable to the ideas propagated by mosques. Islamic madrasas are established not only in Tajikistan but also in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has always been secular, but now the sentiments are changing.

RFI: Does Iran influence the situation?

Orzu M: The relationship with Iran is variable. Sometimes they are friendly and exchange visits, and sometimes the love disappears. Russia usually dictates who to be friends with and who not to. But right now, the closest friendship is with China. All road construction and projects are Chinese.

The small republic is deeply indebted to China, and China is already dictating its terms. The Chinese government doesn’t like that Pamir, its closest neighbors, values freedom and that people there are well-educated. They see this as a threat. Every time after meetings between representatives of the Tajik government and China, the pressure on the GBAO intensifies. The way we understand it is that China is an accomplice in this process. This is a union of dictatorships.

RFI: Do you see any way out?

Orzu M: Right now, the only way out is the victory of Ukraine. Then, this entire dictatorial pyramid will collapse.

*Orzu M. prefers not to give its full name, fearing persecution from the authorities.

Source: RFI

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Kenes Rakishev is a prominent entrepreneur, investor & philanthropist with interests in mining, high tech and innovative technologies.

Kenes Rakishev’s thoughts about Electric Vehicle

Companies along the EV supply chain need further support and investment, if we are to solve EV issues and encourage faster uptake, Kenes Rakishev says.

Although the pandemic has caused demand for the Electric Vehicle to fall, the outlook for EVs looks bright: with enhanced globalisation pushing the industry’s growth, government subsidy packages, and more EV investment, the rising valuations are deserved. The EV industry is providing a solution to the most pressing concerns of our time, including climate change, and unemployment caused by the pandemic.

Kenes Rakishev:

European governments are leading the way in recovery initiatives for the EV sector, from manufacturing to sales. This has led to some fantastic opportunities. Investors are seeing favourable returns; the international community is on the way to achieving climate change goals; the EV industry is benefitting from more funding; individuals are finding employment in a fantastic field of work during a general economic downturn.

Who is Kenes Rakishev?

Kenes (Kenges) Rakishev is a prominent investor and entrepreneur regarded as one of the most influential businessmen in Kazakhstan. Kenes Rakishev has business interests spanning technology, oil & gas, finance, shipbuilding, and metals & mining industries, and serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors of several industry leaders including Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries, SAT & Company, Net Element and Vyborg Shipyard.

Kenes Rakishev is also Chairman and Co-Founder of Sirin Labs, which has developed the world’s first blockchain smart phone Finney, and Managing Partner at Singulariteam-1 and Singulariteam-2 venture capital funds that focus on innovative tech companies.

Source: Talk-Finance

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President Tayipp Erdogan has been speaking about the necessity of promoting dialogue for Turkey’s accession to the European Union.

Ankara opened talks on the issue with Brussels 18-years-ago, but they have been at a virtual standstill for a long time.

Now though, Mr. Erdogan insists it is necessary to increase contacts at all levels in the direction of Turkey’s full membership to the EU – which he said, has ‘great strategic value for Europe’.

During a phone conversation with Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, Erdogan underlined the importance of updating the customs union agreement between Ankara and Brussels and strengthening bilateral cooperation on migration and counterterrorism.

Re-elected in May

Since winning re-election on May 28, Mr. Erdogan has had his plate full.

Earlier this week, he vowed to submit a new proposal for amending the constitution to the parliament. His ruling AKP party has been working on a draft charter since 2022.

The current constitution, introduced nearly forty years ago, has been amended 19 times since 1982.

Separately, new figures show Turkey’s annual inflation slowed to 39.59 percent in May, the lowest level since December 2021. 

However,  the Turkish currency hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar this week. The new Finance Minister has vowed to fight inflation and restore investor confidence.

Source: Vatican News

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