Turkey has been walking a tightrope between Ukraine and Russia, trying not to harm the relations it has with both countries. 

So how did we get here, and is it a viable long term strategy for Ankara?

Less than two weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on 10 March last year, Turkey entered the stage to play a mediator role between the countries, but the meetings held at foreign minister level in Antalya left participants empty-handed.

A few more attempts were made in the following days, including talks held in Istanbul, which were  praised as “significant” at the time, by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. 

Peace talks that bore little fruit halted on 17 May when Kyiv withdrew from the negotiation process.

A beacon of hope was lit last July when Russia agreed on an initiative brokered by the UN and Turkey on exporting grain from the Black Sea. The deal is due to expire on 18 March but unless there is a formal objection from either side, the grain export deal will continue. 

Dr Ali Bilgic, an associate professor at Loughborough University says Turkey has a unique position in the Ukraine war given its long-standing good relations with both parties. 

“Russia has been an important economic partner of Turkey, which has had trade relations with Ukraine as well. Turkey was an important soft power in Ukraine before the war too,” he tells Euronews.

Growing trade relations with Russia

Trying to reconcile the two sides during the course of the war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expanded the existing cooperation in the energy sector with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. 

At the same time, leaders also talked about turning Turkey into a “gas hub” to export gas to Europe; while Russian President Vladimir Putin said he may consider Turkey as a transit country for a possible future gas pipeline. 

As ties got closer, concern amongst opposition in Turkey grew. Questions have been asked repeatedly in the Turkish press: would this friendship open a path for Russian manipulation of the Turkish elections in favour of Erdogan?

“Turkey’s trade relations with Moscow were already at a peak, against the backdrop of a series of sanctions imposed on Russia from the US and the EU,” says Professor Bilgic. 

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Turkey doubled its trade volume when imports from Russia rose to $58.85 billion (€55.44 billion) in 2022 – that’s up from from $28.96 (€27.28  billion) billion the previous year.

Dr Bilgic said that Ankara and Moscow have also often cooperated in Syria since 2015. 

“Needless to say, Turkey has deep political, economic, and military relations with the West. It is quite difficult to find a state like Turkey, and Ankara has been using this unique position quite effectively”.

While Erdogan and his ‘dear friend’ Putin, were shaking hands on financial deals, Ankara continued backing Kyiv in the political arena and was one of the first to provide much needed humanitarian aid.

Turkish defence firm Baykar Tech have sold and donated drones to Ukraine and is planning to complete the construction of its manufacturing plant in the country within two years.

Turkey also sought to avoid an escalation by shutting down the straits that lead to the Black Sea, with the authority granted by the Montreux Convention. 

“Warships would be blocked from accessing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, whether they come from countries bordering the Black Sea or not,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced in March 2022.

According to Dr Bilgic, the three countries are dependent on each other:

“Russia needs Turkey because, through Turkey, Moscow breaks its international isolation while keeping up economic relations with Turkey, ” explains Dr Bilgic.

“Ukraine needs Turkey militarily. But Turkey needs both Russia and Ukraine as well. In the case of Russia, Turkish exports have filled the gap created by international sanctions to a certain extent and this works for Ankara as the country’s economy has been in significant decline in the last few years”.

“In the case of Ukraine, Turkey sees the advantage of Ukraine as an obstacle to the Russian military build-up in the Black Sea region,” he adds.

But what about the West?

Turkey has preserved its stance by not joining the sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU and US, taking a step further also obstructed NATO’s possible expansion with bids from Sweden and Finland.

Despite this, the West did not turn its back to Turkey completely because, according to Dr Bilgic, “it also needs Turkey”.

“Since the beginning of the war, China has been trying to adopt a mediator role in the conflict and Beijing’s efforts have been intensified recently. Particularly for Washington, this role is not acceptable given the rising tension with China. Turkey as a NATO state is a preferred option,” he argues.

On the other hand, Erdogan’s willingness to push relationships to the limits has not been completely without consequences. 

Dr Bilgic says the main loss has been economic, but there is also reputational damage in the West from continuing to block Swedish and Finnish NATO bids. 

At this point, says Bilgic, Western capitals are not questioning Turkey’s value politically, strategically, militarily or economically for the West, but there are some voices starting to question Turkey’s position in NATO. 

What’s still in it for Turkey?

According to Dr Bilgic, Turkey has won two main points with its ongoing diplomatic balancing act betwen Russia, Ukraine and the West. 

Firstly, he says that Turkey has “put its name on the map as a defence exporter” after investing heavily in the defence industry for a decade — and the Ukraine war has shown the rest of the world that Turkish weapons can be very effective. 

“Secondly,” says Bilgic, “Ankara has managed to show to the Global South countries that Turkey does not necessarily follow the West and can have an independent foreign policy”.

So how long can Turkey walk on this tightrope without falling off? That remains the biggest question. 

“The main risk for Turkey is that if the fight is intensified and Russia starts making gains, the patience for Turkey’s balancing act in the Western capitals might run out,” Dr Bilgic argues.

“Ankara might feel pressure to join the international sanctions. This can significantly disturb Ankara’s position in the war”.

Source: Euronews

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that Turkey would move forward with ratifying Finland’s NATO application, paving the way for the country to join the military bloc ahead of Sweden.

The breakthrough came as Finnish President Sauli Niinistö was in Ankara to meet with Erdogan and 10 months after both Finland and Swden applied to become NATO members in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, abandoning decades of nonalignment.

“When it comes to fulfilling its pledges in the trilateral memorandum of understanding, we have seen that Finland has taken authentic and concrete steps,” Erdogan told a news conference in Ankara following his meeting with Niinistö.

With Erdogan’s agreement, Finland’s application can now go to the Turkish parliament, where the president’s party and its allies hold a majority. Ratification is expected before Turkey holds its presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 14 May.

Erdogan suggested Wednesday that his country might take up Finland’s accession following Niinisto’s trip.

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NATO requires the unanimous approval of its 30 existing members to expand, and Turkey and Hungary have failed so far to ratify the accession of the Nordic neighbours.

Turkey’s government accuses Sweden of being too soft on groups that it deems to be terror organisations, including Kurdish groups, and has said it has fewer problems with Finland.

“This sensitivity for our country’s security and, based on the progress that has been made in the protocol for Finland’s accession to NATO, we have decided to initiate the ratification process in our parliament,“ Erdogan said Friday.

Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed an agreement in June last year to resolve differences over the Nordic states’ membership.

Source: Euronews

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Former foreign fighters of the so-called Islamic State terror group (SIS) might still pose a threat in Turkey, a new report has found. 

The International Crisis Group study — published this week — said ex-ISIS militants were an “enduring challenge” in Turkey, presenting officials with “complex questions”. 

“Thousands of foreign nationals who joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq have crossed into Turkey. Some have been deported. Others have stayed,” the report said. 

“Their presence creates a humanitarian and security challenge for Turkey, currently reeling from the devastating earthquakes of February 2023.”

Around 41,000 people are estimated to have joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq between 2013 and 2018, according to King’s College’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation. 

They came from more than 100 countries, including many European states.

“Turkey’s location made it central to ISIS logistics and financing in the group’s heyday, and the presence of large numbers of ISIS-linked individuals still presents risks,” said the report, which was written in Brussels and Ankara. 

The terror group has since been militarily defeated, but there are thorny issues about what to do with those who were captured and imprisoned. 

Many ex-fighters jailed in Turkey on ISIS-related charges are also facing release in near term. 

Turkey has deported more than 9,000 foreigners since 2011, according to the report. However, many countries do not want to accept returned fighters, worried about security risks, legal problems and public opinion. 

In the UK, the case of Shamima Begum, who was smuggled to Syria aged 15 and married to an ISIS fighter, has caused controversy, with London stripping her of British citizenship. 

“The best outcome for ISIS-linked individuals is repatriation, provided it is to countries that treat returnees humanely,” said the International Crisis Group.

Many ex-fighters meanwhile fear what will happen to them back home, fearing the reaction of society and the authorities.

Individuals who are likely to face persecution, torture or death on return are shielded by international law and must either be removed to a safe third country or allowed to stay in Turkey. 

For those who cannot be deported,  Ankara should consider “security measures” and “social programmes”, it continued, suggesting foreign donors should support this. 

“There is no single solution to the challenge Ankara faces. It will need to rely on a multi-pronged strategy that looks to policing and surveillance to track threats, while quietly tolerating (or even supporting) the integration of individuals who cannot be sent home.”

The report called on foreign states to work with Turkey to improve cooperation and repatriate their nationals remaining in Turkey. 

“The danger posed by ISIS has receded since it held swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria and launched attacks in the heart of Europe, but it has not disappeared entirely,” it added.

Source: Euronews

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