The Czechs have never forgotten that allies handed over their Sudetenland Province to Hitler in 1938 after the German dictator promised it would be “the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe.”

Months later, Nazis occupied their country and waged war in Europe and around the world for seven more years, killing tens of millions.

To many today, Ukraine is the next Sudetenland as it fends off another war criminal with imperial ambitions who promises he will stop once it is occupied. The synchronicity is obvious and is why one of the most hawkish and driven leaders in Europe is Czech President Petr Pavel, a retired general and former NATO advisor.

He has been as outspoken and blunt about Putin’s ruthless intention to swallow Ukraine and Europe as was Winston Churchill in the 1930s. And he has also taken the lead by devising a scheme to prevent Ukraine from running out of needed munitions shortly due to US and EU delays. On March 7, he announced that Kyiv will receive between 800,000 and 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition in weeks.

Pavel quietly procured one year’s’ worth of ammo from arsenals around the world, on a no-names basis, in order to safeguard suppliers from Russian retaliation. He’s done so because “if Ukraine fails, so will we.”

President Pavel is blunt. He believes that once again Europe hurtles toward war, and that, if Kyiv falls, war in the rest of Europe is inevitable and troops must be ready for such a potential outcome. He’s a proponent of whatever it takes to halt Putin, and dismisses Putin’s claims that he has no interest in invading another NATO nation.

In the aftermath of the attack on Crocus City Hall near Moscow, for which Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility, fears of attacks by Islamist terrorists are growing in other countries.

In August, at the 55th anniversary of the “Prague Spring” (or the invasion of Czechoslovakia by Soviet troops that crushed its democratic movement) he remarked “Russia has not changed… The 1968 invasion was a time of lost dreams and lost dignity.

We should remember what it felt like. Because Ukraine only wants what we wanted at the time. They want to determine their own path. Russia hasn’t changed since then – the country has a different name, but its foreign policy, its values are the same.”

Pavel is the Czech Republic’s head of state, not an elected politician, a position that provides him with enhanced stature and influence that he uses to help bolster Europe’s resolve and strength. He describes Putin’s ambitions as Hitlerian and also has provided ammo and motivation for the fearful Euros: They are next on the conquest list and that America’s support falters and may disappear if Donald Trump wins.

While Joe Biden remains ahead in polls, even a small chance he will lose represents a gigantic existential threat to all Europeans and they know this. This is why the next two years are crucial, warned Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “We are living in the most critical moment since the end of the Second World War.”

Pavel and Tusk influenced France’s Emmanuel Macron to speak out publicly two weeks ago about the possibility that European “boots on the ground” may be necessary to help Ukraine and prevent all-out war across the continent. Macron’s comment, the leader of the European Union’s only nuclear power, immediately generated attention.

Putin mouthpieces responded that NATO troops in Ukraine would constitute a threat by NATO and warned about a possible nuclear response. In Berlin and Washington, the notion of European escalation caused a furor among its elite where war politics have become complicated and gridlocked.

But Macron was correct to raise the possibility and Pavel supported him. “From the point of view of international law and the UN Charter, there would be nothing to prevent NATO member states’ troops—as well as civilians, for example—from assisting in the work in Ukraine,” he said. For instance, NATO had training missions inside Ukraine after Russia’s first invasion in 2014 of Crimea and the Donbas region.

On March 20, a report by the once-removed, but credible, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank also emphasized that Putin’s intention is to escalate beyond Ukraine. “Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.”

It added “Polish President Andrzej Duda told CNBC that Putin is intensifying efforts to shift Russia to a war economy with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, citing unspecified German research.

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated on Feb. 9 that new intelligence indicates that Russia may attempt to attack a NATO country within three to five years, an accelerated timeline from NATO’s reported assessment in 2023.”

There’s also concern that the current frontline in Ukraine won’t hold, but Pavel’s delivery of ammunition soon will help greatly. Ukraine’s Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said last week that Russia outguns Ukrainian forces sixfold on the front lines.

And after the latest civilian bombing attacks, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky told the media that “we need help now.” Ukrainians prepare for another Russian offensive at the end of May or June.

If successful, Russia will keep going west and some speculate that Putin may try once more to capture Kharkiv then Kyiv. “For him, we are a satellite of Russian Federation,” said Zelensky. “At the moment, it’s us, then Kazakhstan, then Baltic states, then Poland, then Germany. At least half of Germany.”

Russia already threatens NATO members and a number of incidents have come close to direct attacks, which would invoke the Charter pledge that an assault on one is an assault on all 32 nation-state members.

On March 29, Poland stated that a Russian cruise missile, fired at Ukraine, entered Poland’s airspace. “I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. It’s real, and it started over two years ago,” Polish President Tusk told the BBC. And Estonia’s foreign-intelligence service declared in a report last month that Russia was preparing for a “confrontation with the West.”

Pavel suggests that European nations mobilize and impose war measures now, by enhancing border and cybersecurity and by placing any Russian citizens living in their countries under “strict surveillance” by intelligence services.

“All Russians living in Western countries should be monitored much more than in the past because they are citizens of a nation that leads an aggressive war,” Pavel said in an interview with Radio Free Europe. “That’s simply a cost of war.”

Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the current NATO military committee chief, said in Brussels that NATO will soon be launching the Steadfast Defender 2024 exercise, which will run through May and deploy 90,000 troops who will rehearse the alliance’s execution of its regional plans.

“This will show that NATO can conduct and sustain complex multi-domain operations over several months, across thousands of kilometers, from the High North to Central and Eastern Europe, and in any condition,” the 31-nation organization said in a statement.

European leaders now openly discuss the seriousness of the situation, but Putin said this month that Moscow had “no aggressive intentions” towards NATO countries. He said it was “complete nonsense” that Russia would attack NATO members Poland, the Baltic states and the Czech Republic.

However, he warned that if Ukraine used Western F-16 warplanes from airfields in other countries, they would become “legitimate targets, wherever they might be located.”

President Pavel simply urges preparation, not panic. “We’ve all agreed that it is in our imminent interest that Ukraine succeed,” he said in an interview. “On the other hand, there are many variables in the calculation that could change the situation. It will really depend on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine. All armies are preparing for the possibility of a high-intensity conflict.”

Source: Kyiv Post

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France and the United Kingdom (UK) have jointly made a request in favour of Sri Lanka to the court of the Southern District of New York, for a six-month freeze on any litigation in the Hamilton Reserve Bank case until Sri Lanka’s external debt restructuring is completed, the Financial Times reported.

Accordingly, last week the two countries filed a joint “amicus curiae” to the New York judge hearing the case, arguing in favour of Sri Lanka’s request for a six-month freeze on any litigation.

The co-signatories in their “amicus curiae” want the judge to grant Sri Lanka the six-month stay it has requested, because they worry that the lawsuit by Hamilton Reserve Bank/Benjamin Wey could wreck ongoing restructuring talks.

France and UK have jointly made a request to the court of the Southern District of New York, for a six-month freeze on any litigation in the Hamilton Reserve Bank case until Sri Lanka’s external debt restructuring is completed.

“A judgement in favour of the plaintiff before the completion of the debt restructuring process would risk disrupting the ongoing negotiations by creating an incentive for holdout creditors, thereby jeopardising the comparability of treatment between different categories of creditors,” the filing said.

It also said that the relevant principle is at the core of all sovereign debt restructuring processes, as it is key to securing the consent of all creditors, and that disruption would lead to delays in the negotiations, delaying the cash disbursement by the International Monetary Fund to the debtor country and resulting in significant costs for Sri Lanka and the official creditors’ taxpayers.

France is naturally interested in the Sri Lanka lawsuit as it hosts the so-called Paris Club, where government-to-government debts are restructured. The UK is part of the Paris Club but presumably cosigned the amicus brief because it historically oversaw the London Club, the less formal group for private creditors to negotiate with sovereign borrowers.

Last month, the Financial Times also reported that the United States (US) Government has also intervened in the matter where “the US is actively considering whether to file a Statement of Interest with respect to the pending motion to stay”.

The Hamilton Reserve Bank vs. Government of Sri Lanka case was filed in June 2022 after Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy and defaulted on $ 1 billion of this particular bond issue, of which Hamilton Reserve Bank holds $ 250 million.

Source : The Morning

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Jakarta, Surakarta, Berlin (7/12 – 11)

Amid a generally declining period for Germany’s national football team, the 2023 FIFA U-17 World Cup in Indonesia has been a shining light for them. Germany is one of the most successful national teams ever in international competition. They have won four World Cups (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014), three European Championships (1972, 1980, 1996), and a Confederations Cup (2017). Nevertheless, in recent years, Germany is suffering a horrid fate.

In 2018, Germany suffered their first-ever first-round exit from the World Cup, since 1938. Germany became the fifth defending champions to be eliminated in the group stages of the World Cup, following Brazil in 1966, France in 2002, Italy in 2010, and Spain in 2014. Again, they were knocked out of the World Cup in the group stage for the second consecutive tournament in 2022.

At the UEFA European Championship in 2020, Germany also fell short. They only managed to reach the round of 16. At the UEFA Nations League, Germany consecutively finished 11th in 2018-2019, 8th in 2020-2021, and 10th in 2022-2023.

This year, poor performances persist, confirming that Germany is in a long decline. They lost six times and only won three times in eleven matches throughout the year. Julian Nagelsmann was installed as new Head Coach on 22 September 2023, but lost to Turkey and Austria last month in his first two games.

In the middle of this crisis, there is finally good news for Germany, from their participation in the 2023 FIFA U-17 World Cup. Last Saturday, Germany were victorious in the final against France. They lifted the trophy after a hard-fought game, which ended 2-2 in regulation time. Germany went on to beat France 4-3 in a penalty shootout at Manahan Stadium, Surakarta, Central Java.

For the first time in history, Germany was crowned as world champions at the U-17 level, completing their World Cup trophies at senior and U-20 level. These young Germans show that they have a lot of potential. They were unbeaten throughout the World Cup tournament in Indonesia.

Worth noting that six months earlier, this team also won the 2023 UEFA European U-17 Championship. Germany has become the first nation to win the UEFA European U-17 Championship and U-17 World Cup in the same year. Some of their players shone and could be counted as stars for the future. Forward Paris Brunner received the Golden Ball award as the best player in the 2023 FIFA U-17 World Cup. Brunner followed in the footsteps of his fellow countryman Toni Kroos, who won the coveted award in 2007.

If Kroos manages to go on and become the 2014 FIFA World Cup winner, nobody can write Brunner off for not achieving the same. Midfielder and captain Noah Darvich already made a notable name, as Barcelona recruited him in August.

Max Moerstedt, Robert Ramsak, Bilal Yalcinkaya, Eric da Silva Moreira, David Odogu, Maximilian Henning, and Charles Hermann are several other players that could form the backbone of the German national team in the next ten years. “We have got players with incredible talent who also have a great mentality. This combination makes anything possible,” Germany’s coach Christian Wuck said.

Obviously, it’s still a long way for Noah Darvich and Co to prove their worth in the next steps, because success at the youth level doesn’t often translate into success for the first team. Nevertheless, the U-17 team’s accomplishment in Indonesia definitely brings hope that there is a light at the end of the dark tunnel that Germany is in right now.

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Dublin, London (9/10 – 25)

The pool stage of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France reached its final day on Sunday. The eight quarter-final contenders who will compete on 14 and 15 October are now confirmed.

Host France are the Pool A winner, followed by three-time champion New Zealand. Italy finished third in Pool A, neatly qualifying them for the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

From Pool B, current World Number One Ireland are flexing their muscles with a perfect record: four wins out of four matches makes them Group Winner. Defending champion South Africa finished second, with Scotland managing third place.

Wales are the Pool C winner with Fiji through to the quarter-finals as the runner-up. Australia finished the pool stage in third place in Pool C with 11 points, the same as Fiji. But The Wallabies got knocked out because of their inferior record in the head-to-head against Fiji.

England conquered Pool D with perfect results, leaving Argentina in second place and Japan taking third. In the quarter-finals, Wales will face Argentina at Marseille, and Ireland are up against New Zealand in a blockbuster match at Saint-Denis on 14 October. The next day, England play Fiji at Marseille and France will try to eliminate South Africa at Saint-Denis.

With Australia out, there are only three former champions left in the knock-out round of the 2023 Rugby World Cup: New Zealand, South Africa, and England. The possibility of the emergence of a new champion in the Rugby World Cup automatically clicks upward.

The betting odds at the end of the pool stage suggest that this time around, a new country will snatch that Webb Ellis Cup on 28 October. Most betting houses are stacking odds for Ireland and France, as two of the three favorites to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup. They are indeed the worthy ones.

Since their win over South Africa in Pool B, Ireland are practically the new tournament favorite. Johnny Sexton and Co. haven’t lost a test match since February 2022. Andy Farrell’s team also came into this year’s World Cup by winning their third Grand Slam.

Home advantage has been a huge factor for France, as they bid to win their first-ever Rugby World Cup. Since day one, when they humiliated New Zealand in the tournament opener, Fabien Galthie’s team look pretty solid and are brimming with confidence.

France suffered the loss of their star, with the injured Antoine Dupont on the sidelines. But without their mercurial scrum half, France destroyed Italy 60-7 in the last match of Pool A. The demolition of Italy may have shown that France are peaking at just the right time for the knock-out stages.

“After a first ‘World Cup final’ against New Zealand, our match next weekend will be a second ‘World Cup final’, clearly,” said Galthie. “South Africa are world champions and have clearly been preparing to win back-to-back titles and on the other side is the number one team in the world,” he continued. “The draw is what it is, and it’s up to us to do our job.”

Interestingly, given their track records in the tournament, Ireland and France are each burdened with a “curse” that can derail them in their quest to become the champion. In nine appearances at the World Cup, Ireland has never succeeded in reaching the semifinals. They infamously have never been able to get past the quarter-finals. On the other hand, France have never been able to reach World Cup glory as their best finish was runner-up in 1987, 1999, and 2011.

The quarter-finals will furthermore test the credentials of Ireland and France. As if it was destined, the two strongest candidates for a new champion will clash with two former winners. If they can get past New Zealand and South Africa, it looks like nothing will stop Ireland and France from going head-to-head at the final to determine who is the new champion.

“We’re in the quarter-finals against the toughest opposition we could get,” said Sexton. “The way the draw was made three years ago turned out to be a bit unfair, but it’s the hand that we were dealt and we have to be ready for New Zealand next week,” said the 38-year-old, who is due to retire after this tournament.

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Paris, Dublin, London (24/9 – 32)

Undefeated in 17 games in the last 15 months, Ireland has beaten every rugby union world champion, three of them twice – just for humiliation. Historically, the Irish never got past the last eight of a Rugby World Cup. In this year’s tournament they are on fire: fans have faith that Ireland will finally seize The Webb Ellis Cup on 28 October, final day of the struggle.

Low-scoring but epic: a 13-8 win over the defending champion South Africa in Pool B of the 2023 Rugby World Cup on Saturday – a brutal statement from the Irish. Poor flummoxed South Africa never knew what hit them: they had only conceded 3 points from their previous two games in Pool B (creaming Scotland and Romania). Not only did the Springboks not concede tries in those two games – in fact, they only conceded two tries in their last eight Rugby World Cup games.

Ireland managed to breach that defense with Mack Hansen’s try, the second time in the last 15 months that Ireland has walloped South Africa: a 19-16 win when the two sides met in Dublin on 5 November 2022, with tries from Josh van der Flier and Hansen.

Hansen succinctly declared what the win to his team means: “They are the defending champions and they know exactly what it takes to win this World Cup”. “To get a win over them is as good as it can get really. It gives us a lot of strength and a lot of belief.”

Ireland has every right to assume this year’s tournament will be theirs: hey, they are the current world number one, on a burning winning streak since July 2022. What a campaign: Ireland shellacked every rugby union world champion, three of them twice. Johnny Sexton and Co. whomped New Zealand 23-12 and 32-22 on July 2022.

In November 2022, Ireland snatched a 19-16 win over South Africa, a feat that they repeated last Saturday. In the same month, Ireland was triumphant 13-10 in a match against Australia. This year, Andy Farrell and his team managed to defeat England twice: 29-16 on 18 March at the 2023 Six Nations Championship and 29-10 on 19 August, for good measure.

The victory over South Africa leaves Ireland clear at the top of Pool B, aiming them at host France or New Zealand in the quarterfinal. Ireland already did the job on France at a humiliating 32-19 last February, at the 2023 Six Nations Championship.

Ireland glows with an aura of invincibility – but they’re on their guard. “It doesn’t get any easier at all. We’ll take this win and enjoy it for now, then it is straight on to the next,” said Hansen, pointing out that his side will switch their focus to Scotland on 7 October, to ensure their place in the knockout stages. “We have a tough week against a really good Scotland side and if we get the win there, and everything goes well, it’s either France or New Zealand.”

“We are glad to keep rolling and get another four points on the board, but we have to dust ourselves off now and remain focused on Scotland in two weeks’ time,” added Farrell. “As the competition goes on we’ll need to be better,” he concluded.

Yeah, win the battle but don’t lose the war.

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Paris, Dublin, Johannesburg (20/9 – 15)

The 2023 Rugby World Cup will contest what will arguably be the grandest game in the Pool Stage this weekend. On Saturday night, 23 September 2023, South Africa and Ireland go head-to-head in Pool B, at Stade de France, Paris: the world number two against world number one. All will witness a reigning world champion versus a team with a winning streak extending from July 2022.

Both teams dive in with two wins from their opening games. The Springboks won 18-3 against Scotland – and then obliterated Romania 76-0. Meanwhile, Ireland have been barely tested, as they got an 82-8 win over Romania and 59-16 over Tonga. This will in fact be the first time that Ireland and South Africa have met at a World Cup.

But in the last meeting between them on 5 November 2022, Ireland won 19-16. Johnny Sexton scored 9 of Ireland’s 19 points in that game. Sexton is still Ireland’s main man in the 2023 Rugby World Cup, having scored 40 of Ireland’s 141 points with 3 tries, 11 conversions, and 1 penalty.

In his last performance against Tonga, Sexton became Ireland’s all-time top points scorer with 1090. “I’m very proud to do it, but tonight it was more important getting the win and moving on to what is such a massive game (against South Africa) this coming week,” he said.

With Sexton and company on fire, Ireland have already scored 141 points, the top number so far in this year’s World Cup.

South Africa doesn’t have a “Johnny Sexton” in their ranks, at least in the first two matches. Makazole Mapimpi, Cobus Reinach, and Damian Willemse share scoring responsibility, with 15 points each. The Springboks are basically unpredictable.

Against Romania, South Africa made 14 player changes to a team that ran on for an opening 18-3 win against Scotland. That is naturally a prime concern for Ireland. “They are the type of guys who come up with new plans and tricky little things in new games,” said Ireland’s scrum-half Connor Murray. “So you have to be prepared for everything.”

Defence is another strength of the defending champion.

The Springboks only conceded 3 points from two games, against Scotland and Romania. In fact, South Africa only conceded two tries in their last eight games at the tournament. Their current run includes shutouts against Namibia, Italy, Japan, England, Scotland, and Romania.

Their points aggregate across those eight games marked 343 scored and 47 conceded. “This team has always prided itself on defence, so I am extremely happy,” The Springboks’ head coach Jacques Nienaber said in the wake of the 76-0 victory over Romania.

The winner of this massive match will be in the driver’s seat of Pool B, with a possible matchup against New Zealand in the next round. The loser will likely claim second place in Pool B and potentially face France in the first round of the knockout stages. “It will be a big game, in terms of who finishes one and two in the pool, but there are still games to play after this match,” said Nienaber. “I don’t want to get too far ahead. If it’s Italy, if it’s France or New Zealand, it’s going to be a tough quarterfinal, it doesn’t matter who we play.”

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Frankfurt, Brussels (3/7 – 27)

France has been plagued by multiple outbreaks of rioting following mass protests over the death of a teenager at the hands of a police officer last week. The death of Nahel M. (17), teenager of North African descent, has stoked anger among the public at police violence against minorities and exacerbated existing racial tensions in France.

Protests have spread beyond the capital city of Paris and its suburban areas, to other major cities, including Lyon, Marseille, Le Havre, Toulouse and Nantes. On Sunday (2/7/2023), a day after Nahel’s funeral in Nanterre, 719 people were arrested in a sweep according to the AFP News Agency. The previous night,  French police had arrested more than 1,300 rioters, some 45 police officers were injured, 577 vehicles burnt and 74 buildings invaded and looted. At one point, there were numerous fires on the streets and in public spaces, at a whopping 871 locations.

Vincent Jeanbrun, Mayor of the Parisian suburb, L’Haÿ-les-Roses, reported that his home was attacked early Sunday morning, calling it “an assassination attempt”. His wife and two children, ages 5 and 7, fled to safety through the back yard, with the mayor’s wife sustaining a broken bone while escaping. Police discovered a Molotov cocktail in a Coke bottle.

Nahel was shot by police in Paris on Tuesday (27/6/2023). A video footage of the scene of the shooting showed Nahel speeding off in his yellow Mercedes AMG almost hitting an officer and other vehicles.

The video footage of 17 year old, Nahel’s attempted escape from the police and subsequent shooting that killed him circulated on social media, sparking street protests which degenerated into flash rioting and smash-and-grab violence. Several cities then implemented a ban on demonstrations.

The video footage of his attempted escape and subsequent shooting quickly circulated on social media, sparking street protests which soon degenerated into rioting and smash-and-grab violence. Several cities then implemented a ban on demonstrations, as neighboring countries issued travel warnings. The escalating event was an echo of three-week-long riots in 2005, which were triggered by the death of two teenagers who were hiding from police. The insurrection forced the French government to declare a state of emergency.

Activists claim Nahel’s ethnic background played a role in the teenager’s shooting, an accusation denied by the police and the government. The French pride themselves in the famed secularism (or referred to as “laicité” in French) as a key foundation of the French Republic, guaranteeing equality for all citizens. This is enshrined in the removal of barriers of difference, including that of ethnic origin or race.

Nevertheless, a high number of folks of color residing in France feel that they are more likely to become victims of police violence, compared to their white counterparts. A 2017 study by Rights Defenders, an independent human rights organization in France, found that young people of black or Arab descent were 20 times more likely to be stopped by police for questioning, compared to their peers.

Thus, the eruption of anger and violence this time was not only about Nahel’s death, but also the prevalence of such incidents in French society – even while French law prohibits the collection of data based on ethnicity, as this would imply discrimination.

Paris-based political analysts Eddy Fougier and Gerd-Rainer Horn surmised that when protests broke out elsewhere, the sentiment that emerged was perhaps an ambient, reflexive skepticism or dislike of authority. Why the French people enjoy protesting is unclear, but according to Fougier, it is part of a national “culture of conflict” that can be traced back to the French Revolution.

“We almost want to repeat the French Revolution over and over again,” he theorized.

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