Latest Developments

The third-most senior Hamas figure, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed on January 2 in a Beirut blast that Lebanese authorities blamed on Israel. Arouri was among at least four people who died in an Israeli drone strike on a Hamas media office in the southern Dahiyeh suburb of the Lebanese capital, a Hezbollah stronghold, authorities said. Israeli officials had no immediate comment.

After Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, Arouri was the top-ranked Hamas official. He pursued an especially aggressive Palestinian terrorism strategy, with a focus on the West Bank, where he ordered the 2014 abduction and murder of three Israeli teenagers, sparking a Gaza war. After a period of being headquartered in Turkey, Arouri relocated to Lebanon, where he spearheaded Hamas coordination with Hezbollah and their shared Iranian patron.

Expert Analysis

“Israel has openly vowed to take the Gaza war to all leaders of Hamas, no matter where they are. That Arouri apparently thought he might be immune in the Hezbollah heartland suggests a major miscalculation on the part of Hamas. The question now is how Hezbollah will calculate the risks of stepping up its own attacks on Israel in retaliation.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO

“Israel sent a message to all terror allies of Iran that no matter where they hide, they will never be secure. Whether Hamas leaders reside in Qatar, Turkey, Lebanon, or another country, they should assume their days are numbered. Hezbollah’s leadership must also factor this escalation into the group’s next move.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

“The elimination of Saleh al-Arouri stands as a significant blow to Hamas and a considerable victory for Israel in its current war against Palestinian terrorist groups. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that this accomplishment is merely one of many goals Israel must achieve in order to dismantle Hamas and its partners.” — Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

Source: FDD

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It’s an old story, a broken record: war crimes in the Middle East, encouraged and stoked by outsiders with their own agenda. Israel, offended and humiliated by the 7 October attacks (for which they had repeatedly been warned by Egypt.

Hamas, encouraged and bankrolled by Israel initially, in its effort to undercut the appeal of Al-Fatah, has turned into Frankenstein’s Monster, breaching a border that was trumpeted as the most invincible in the world, with 24/7 surveillance, sensors to detect tunnels, full camera coverage and on and on – yet several thousand Hamas warriors parachuted in unimpeded, like autumn leaves, cut through the fence and barreled along, killing and kidnapping as they went. Where was the much-vaunted Israeli military, multi-billion-dollar funded by Washington, kitted out with the latest armaments and electronic surveillance?

Every Israeli politician should be held to account for the failure to defend the border, and the crimes of Hamas were immediately followed by indiscriminate bombing of Gaza by the Israeli military, which finally woke up and got moving. How many noncombatants dead? Woman, children, the elderly? Let’s say 9,000. The world looks on, displeased.

A billion Muslims worldwide see this as yet another attack by an infidel west on Islam. The 7 October attack was notable in its cruelty to kibbutz-dwellers, party-goers – absolute innocents going about their lives on the Israeli side of the border. Babies were murdered, women beheaded. What was the objective of this, as Hamas (just like all combatants in all contemporary conflicts) is playing to an audience of Telegram, TikTok and other internet witnesses. The surprising aspect is that there have been massive demonstrations throughout the western world in support of Hamas; while they do not call for the destruction of Israel they are demanding human rights for the Palestinians. The killings of Israelis are intentionally ignored.

Was Netanyahu not suckered in to this mess? Is the massive retaliation currently thundering down on Gaza not precisely what Hamas expected from its enemy, so average Palestinians could be seen by the world as victims once again?

Other Arab nations are mostly keeping their distance, and avoiding any inflammatory moves beyond grave, angry pronouncements. The Islamic Republic of Iran, always ready to stir up trouble in the Arab East, is talking tough but moving cautiously, even as they sponsor terror groups in Syria Yemen and Iraq.

There was a recent interview, carried on YouTube, with Hezbollah honcho Hassan Nasrullah, notably silent about the war in Gaza until now. He claims that the recent attacks were “100% Palestinian” thereby clearing Hezbollah of any responsibility. 90 minutes of threats, harangue and fundamentalist rhetoric was his contribution to the dialogue. Evidence to the contrary exists, Hezbollah like the Iran were informed by HAMAS. The political aims are also very clear. Undermine the wider peace talks between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Muslim world. A first in 50 years for the region.

What is Hezbollah, one of many radical Islamic groups that have sprung up in the past 30 ~ 40 years? Presumptuously calling itself the “Party of God”, its role in Lebanon is that of a political party/armed militia/Iranian proxy. Its militia consists of more than an estimated 100,000 fighters, well-trained, battle-hardened and ready to fight and die. Hezbollah is said to be unlike Hamas or the Islamic Jihad – different in that it is an integrated part of Lebanese society.  

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has struck 19 locations along the Israeli border with rocket fire, and carried out skirmishes against the Israeli Defense Force (IDF). The Hamas surprise attack impressed Muslims worldwide, who see it as a natural revenge move on behalf of the suffering Palestinians.

“What’s happening in Gaza today is not like any previous war. It’s not just another battle – it’s a historic and decisive one. What unfolds after it will differ significantly from what there was before,” thundered Nasrullah. The assembled masses drank it up. Shops were closed and tens of thousands gathered for a full-throated hatefest.

Still, Nasrullah has sufficient problems facing him in a sick, broke and weak Lebanon, and the idea of going to war now looks definitely unappealing. Beards waggle and fanatics whoop – but what the hirsute mullah actually indicated was “And now, more of the same”: limited strikes and exchanges but no full-scale war.

“All options are on the table with Israel. What will happen depends on Israel’s actions in Gaza.” Rather lukewarm support for the Palestinians – noting once again that NO Islamic country in North Africa, the Middle East or Asia has invited the suffering Palestinians to emigrate there. They know trouble when they see it.

“America is the Great Satan, Israel is lying, their soldiers will fail in Gaza and Hamas did a great job on October 7.” Typical Hezbollah yakkity-yak.

The subtext for the greybeard leader in his televised talk was “Cool it. Take no action … yet.” But Hezbollah is in fact a very unpredictable and deeply violent force.

Israel, of course has the “Samson Option”, embodied in its 200+ nuclear weapons nestled safely away in a Negev Desert “research facility”. One of those babies would blow Teheran off the map. Or Damascus, or Mecca. It would also take out a whole army, leaving behind a glowing radioactive crater dangerous for a thousand years afterwards.

While the Islamic masses may be frothing at the mouth to go to war, their leaders do not look forward to national suicide.

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Much like its ideological counterparts at HispanTV (Iranian-owned) and Actualidad RT (Russian-owned), Telesur wraps its incitement into a sophisticated and slick twenty-four-hour news platform through its website, broadcasts, and social media presence. Though it is difficult to gauge its influence, numbers suggest that Telesur’s message is impactful. Telesur has two million followers on its Spanish X account, 117,500 on its English X account, and more than half a million on Instagram. Its YouTube account has over 1.7 million subscribers, with 100,000 new subscribers and almost 7.4 million video views since October 7 (It also posts its videos on the Daily Motion).

The network traditionally pushes out conspiracy theories, fake news, “whataboutism,” and disinformation that serve a common agenda: demonize the West, undermine the credibility of Western news outlets, paint Western leaders as hypocrites, and promote a narrative of global resistance against America and its allies. Aware that a worldwide audience of half a billion Spanish speakers—including almost sixty million in the U.S.—could be receptive to its anti-imperialist spin, Telesur began broadcasts in 2005. Since then, Telesur has routinely packaged its allies’ imperialism as resistance, their terrorism as anti-terrorism, and their authoritarianism as democracy. It has platformed conspiracy theorists, like Thierry Meyssan, the French author of the 2002 screed, 9/11: The Big Lie, the earliest 9/11 “truther” libel, accusing the United States of orchestrating the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers. It has also peddled anti-Semitic tropes, insinuating that “the Zionist Lobby” manipulates and controls U.S. media, falsely accusing Israelis of trafficking children and Israel of supporting ISIS.

Telesur news coverage since October 7, then, is hardly surprising. However, it has gained a new obsessive intensity, broadcasting a daily media diet of hatred. In its breaking news report on Hamas’ October 7 massacre, Telesur news anchor described that morning’s atrocities as an operation by the Hamas “resistance movement” in response to “continued Israeli aggressions.” The broadcast defined the event as “a new stage in the Palestinian struggle against Zionist occupation.” It then showed its viewers a news segment produced by their Syria-based correspondent, which made no mention of atrocities or Israeli civilian casualties. Telesur’s initial denial and distortion set the stage for the ensuing news coverage, which amplified a pro-Hamas narrative.

For example, after Western media corrected their reporting about Palestinian claims that on October 17, Israel bombarded the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, killing 500 people, Telesur doubled down, relying on a report from Al Jazeera.

Opinion pieces have been even more inflammatory than news segments, consistently espousing bigotry. Telesur commentators have routinely compared Israel to Nazism, denying and, at the same time, justifying the October 7 massacre. On October 9, as the gory details of Hamas atrocities were emerging, a blog entry celebrated them as a “very special page” in the history of the great battles for freedom. On October 15, TeleSur’s special envoy in Lebanon wrote a column entitled “Agony of a macabre implant,” where, after defining Israel as a European colonial-settler “implant” and accusing it of committing genocide, he proceeded to dismiss Hamas’ atrocities, lamenting a “Western media narrative, which focuses on Hamas, and not on the unprecedented fact of the united action of all Palestinian resistance organizations.”

After denial comes the systematic demonization of Israel through the casual recourse to antisemitic tropes, with Israel described as a worthy successor of Nazi Germany. 

On October 16, another blog post accused Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, of pursuing a final solution in Gaza and pleaded that the international community should not allow “the Jews to continue murdering the Palestinians in their land.”

On October 21, another commentator evoked the old Antisemitic canard of Jewish control of world media to denounce what its author considered a global media coverup of Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Those controlling the “spiral of silence” in the mainstream media were, according to the author, “the transnational Jewish lobby.” On November 3, the theme of a conspiracy of silence orchestrated by Israel, the United States, and “the hegemonic media” recurred in another column. Its goal, thundered the author, was to enable Israel to turn Gaza into “a Palestinian cemetery.” The next day, Telesur published another blog post accusing Israel, whose creation the author described as the machinations of the “international Zionist oligarchy,” of committing “the third largest genocide in history.” And on November 7, Chilean columnist Pablo Jofre Leal (an author frequently posting on HispanTV as well and a government advisor to Gabriel Boric’s ministry of health in Chile) attacked what he labeled “the Ukraine-Israel national socialist-national Zionist alliance,” called the Hamas massacres a “legitimate action of the Palestinian resistance,” and described Israel’s response as a modern version of 1942 Wannsee Conference, the Nazi gathering that finetuned Hitler’s final solution.

Telesur, whose broadcast includes an English language channel and a Washington, DC, based correspondent, continues to spread misinformation and incitement through the ether, the internet, and social media. Washington, whose battle against disinformation has taken multiple steps to curb Russia’s and Iran’s misinformation channels in the anglosphere, seems mostly oblivious to Spanish language propaganda by Maduro’s Venezuela, despite its ability to shape public opinion in Latin America.

Downplaying the importance of the battle of ideas in Spanish will have long-term implications, especially in Latin America, where the Maduro regime continues to leverage a long history of anti-Americanism to its own advantage. Commenting on Russia’s Spanish language propaganda in Latin America, Southern Command’s General Laura J. Richardson recently said, “In 2020, Russia Today (RT)’s Spanish-language media outlets more than doubled their social media followers from 7 million to over 18 million. These disinformation campaigns are just one part of Russia’s broader efforts to influence national elections throughout the region this year.”

With much of the region’s political winds blowing leftward, the pro-Iran and pro-Hamas echo chamber of the Maduro regime should draw as much urgent attention from the White House and State Department as Russia’s disinformation does.

If Washington does wake up to the threat, it can take three initial steps to address it. First, it can slap sanctions against Telesur, much like it did against Iran’s Press TV, for its key role in supporting censorship and televising forced confessions, and Russian state-owned propaganda outlets for their role in Russia’s disinformation campaign. Second, it can lobby the telecom private sector to have Telesur de-platformed. Third, it can appeal to U.S.-based social media platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram, X, the Daily Motion, and YouTube, to ensure they restrict Venezuelan regime disinformation.

The pro-Hamas, pro-Iran disinformation that Telesur spews daily is inflammatory, inciteful, and rife with antisemitic hatred. Telesur should be treated as a foreign state influence operation of the Maduro dictatorship for its continued rhetoric inciting hatred against Jews and driving global antisemitism. It should not be given free rein. Washington has sanctioned similar media disinformation campaigns before. Telesur should not be an exception.

Source: FDD

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Hamas is sheltered in a sea of civilians. Ostensibly a Palestinian political and military organization established in 1987, Hamas “governs” on the basis of having won a majority in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections – defeating Fatah, another Islamist terror combine – before forming a government in the Gaza Strip, described as “…the world’s largest open-air prison” for its Palestinian inhabitants.

So why don’t the Palestinians, having been robbed of their ancient lands, simply up and move somewhere else? It is telling that none of the Islamic nations surrounding Israel care to admit any more Palestinian settlers. Neither Egypt, Jordan or Syria will take them. Why is that? Because those nations are not fools: they understand that the bellicose, fractious Palestinians will bring them trouble, permanently.

A government is presumably supposed to “govern”. That presumably does not include torturing, maiming and killing those who voted for you. Acknowledged internationally as a terrorist organization, Hamas, cynically calling itself a “freedom fighter group” treats the average inhabitants of the west bank, Gaza and Lebanon as human meat shields.

It hides weapons among schoolchildren, deploys weapons from crowded areas, fires upon Israelis from trees and then melts back into crowds of noncombatants. Try and escape the war zone? Anyone now trying to flee the area is in danger of being murdered by Hamas and Hezbollah. Their “asymmetrical warfare” is not just wreaked on Israelis – they will torture and kill anyone not supporting their cause.

What cause is that? The Palestinians’ overt declaration, contained in the Hamas charter, is that Israel has no right to exist and must be destroyed. Its plainly-stated intention is to “wipe Israel off the map.” That is hardly a viable pre-condition for a serious negotiation to settle this ancient quarrel.

“From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.” How do you negotiate with such fanatics? Well, by now it becomes clear that you do not. The reality is they don’t care about average people, Muslim, Jew or Christian. They are hell-bent on the elimination of Israel at all costs, regardless of what happens to everyone else living there, including fellow Arabs and Muslims.

The provocation of 7 October, killing 1400 in attendance at a “Peace Festival” (the irony thickens) and kidnapping several hundred more, should have opened the eyes of the world to the fact that there is a larger, well-organized pogrom funded and carried out by Jew-hating fanatics who could care less about the plight of Palestinians and don’t want any compromise when it comes to eliminating every last Jew and Christian from the Middle East.

Once Israel goes, you can bet the Christian minority in Middle Eastern countries will be next.

Proof?

Just ask the millions of Christians who were “ethnically cleansed” from lands that they inhabited for centuries. It happened after World War Two, when Arab nations expelled their Christian and Jewish minorities in retaliation for the establishment of Israel.

In fact, this is a war is between Western Enlightenment, represented by Israel, and 14th Century theocratic despotism, represented by the Islamic nations surrounding it.

And the west is being held hostage: just as Europe is being deindustrialized, companies going bankrupt, since the Americans blew up the Russian gas pipeline, the “good life in suburbia” of America, Canada and Australia is not viable without affordable oil. Arab oil.

Israel, meanwhile, has already installed over 600,000 settlers in the West Bank, in violation of international agreements. How about the Palestinians who are being chased into the desert by Israeli ( = American) firepower? The US and Israel will find 3rd countries to take them. The US will pay a couple of billion in “aid” to bribe them. Just like the US bribed Egypt to make peace with Israel.

And Hamas? A legally-recognized government?

It is said that people truly get the government they deserve. God, let’s hope that’s not so in this case.

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Drawing from its prior clashes with Israel, Hamas has gained vital insights on how to effectively counter Israel. Despite being at a military disadvantage in nearly every area, Hamas has developed unconventional methods to attack Israel, including a powerful propaganda system to garner global backing for its objectives.

For example, on Tuesday, Hamas employed extensive propaganda tactics as reports emerged of an alleged Israeli airstrike targeting the al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza. One of the earliest pieces of evidence demonstrating the dissemination of disinformation appeared when a member of the Hamas-operated health ministry was quoted by al-Jazeera – a fervent advocate of Hamas and Islamic Jihad – alleging that five hundred individuals at a hospital had been killed in an Israeli airstrike. Subsequently, this information rapidly proliferated across various social media platforms, including mainstream news web sites.

The news spurred the Israeli military to deny the accusation and declassify intelligence demonstrating that it did not strike the hospital and that it was an errant rocket fired by Islamic Jihad. Allied countries like the United States and France publicly supported Israel’s assertion that it was not responsible for the blast.

Another point of significance is that rockets launched by Palestinian armed groups are unreliable and often times strike the civilian population in Gaza. Last year, video evidence surfaced that rockets fired by terrorist organizations were falling short and hitting civilian infrastructure.

Although the explosion at the hospital was probably caused by a misdirected rocket, and the casualties initially reported were inflated, the damage had already been done to Israel’s image on the international stage.

Another example of Hamas propaganda emerged during the first days of the war when its spokesperson, Abu Obeida, threatened that Hamas would begin executing hostages if Israeli airstrikes did not cease. Since the statement, Israel has continued striking military infrastructure, and Hamas has not made any more public threats about the hostages.

Lastly, Hamas disseminated a recording showing a seemingly injured Israeli hostage receiving medical care. The video was an attempt to show that Hamas cared for the prisoners. Still, in reality, Hamas was trying to restore its image after much of the brutality and kidnappings by the group were published online.

Hamas has implemented various propaganda techniques throughout previous wars, including during times of general calm. Specific methods have effectively dispelled inaccurate information, primarily because of mainstream media’s limited comprehension of the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Given the propensity of journalists to at times conduct insufficient research when reporting events during war because of the urgency to provide speedy information on social media platforms, Hamas will undoubtedly attempt to continue exploiting these vulnerabilities.

Source: FDD

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Paris, Frankfurt (13/10 –  42)

Twenty-First Century technology has a way of speeding everything up – often overdriving events beyond human control. Exhibit “A”: the internet. Hamas and its supporters were undoubtedly aware of the multiplication impact of social media when they mounted their recent murderous attack on a “peace party” along the Israeli border (twist the irony dial); Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, intent on a blanket reprisal on the Palestinians, apparently does not care what the internet thinks, says or reports.

It is perplexing to the simple-minded when there are no “good guys” in a fight. Note how the vociferous left, long championing what they condemn as “disinformation” or “misinformation”, is now caught in their own web, as barrages of anti-Israel – not to mention pro-Hamas terrorist attack – flood the Web.

Go back a bit. Betar “pioneers” infiltrating British-controlled Palestine in the 1930s harassed the inhabitants by “occupying” ancient water sources and springs – thus preventing the Bedouins and farmers from accessing them. No water = no life.

This is related in detail in the memoir of Moshe Arens.

A video clip of an Arab man and his elderly father confronting an Israeli settler, explaining patiently that the newcomer had stolen and now occupied the old man’s land. The Arab showed the Israeli the deed. The settler responded by stating that God had given him the land.

A situation without a resolution.

An ugly history leads up to the present impossible conundrum. The Haavara Agreement, signed in 1933 by an unlikely collaboration between Zionists and German Nazis, facilitated the emigration of German Jews to Palestine, taking assets pointedly used to purchase German goods for export to that sad land. Most of the Jewish population of Germany, comfortable and prosperous, declined to move to the desert (which the British controlled, in any case, and did not welcome settlers). They had no idea of what lay in store for them, as the Jewish Agency for Palestine, the main Zionist organization there at that time, played a key role in organizing illegal immigration of Jews from Europe.

Technology exacerbates the hostility, by stoking rumors, conjectures, info and disinfo. Was Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu aware of the impending attack – considering little Israel has the most advanced military intelligence capability on the planet? Did the Egyptians not pass urgent warnings to Israel of a likely Hamas military move? Was the attack a “false flag” event laid by Netanyahu to shore up his political position? We’ll likely never know. What we do know is the furious backlash of the authorities to the media blitz.

As BLM supporters gloried in the terrorist attack, and supporters of Israel battled back in the media, the European Commission piled in, warning billionaire-joker Elon Musk that “X”, née “Twitter”, that allowing what the EC ceremoniously deemed “hate speech” was unacceptable.  According to guidelines set up by the “Digital Services Act”, rules were being breached, by jaw-snapping, foaming-at-the-mouth rabid commentors on all sides of the current matter. This dictum from “Europäischer Kommissar” Thierry Breton, wielding a whip over the reckless social media site.

“Let me remind you that the Digital Services Act sets very precise obligations regarding content moderation.”

Musk comes back and challenges the saucy Info-Eurocrat with “What are you talking about? Give me examples” but the Kommissar won’t step into that trap, instead primly hand-waving with “Vu, merci. You are well aware of your users’ — and authorities’— reports on fake content and glorification of violence.

“Up to you to demonstrate that you walk the talk.” [The gent means “…walk the walk…” and not just “…talk the talk…”] Idioms, Thierry, idioms!

He signs off with an unctuous “My team remains at your disposal to ensure DSA compliance, which the EU will continue to enforce rigorously.”

A challenge to which Mr. Musk promptly replied, X’ing it out:

“We take our actions in the open.

“No back room deals.

“Please post your concerns explicitly on this platform.”

 – Elon Musk

Now do you see why he shelled out the billions to buy this nonsense social media site? What fun, to tease and tickle the hypocritical Eurocrats.

What is actually accurate or fake in this kangaroo court of social media? Are we to only accept the government stamp-of-approval-issued content? Think Pravda, think Izvestia (wink, wink). Ditto for the corporate media, obedient and in league with the Official Party Line.

Deep State undoubtedly has its feelings hurt that there are no longer direct lines, offices, perks and money for FBI, CIA and other “truth agents” in the TwitteRealm.

For that matter, why are millions of previously-trusting consumers now justifiably wary of their governments cajoling, threatening and mandating the so-called “vaccine”, untested mRNA “single-stranded RNA … in a growing protein chain” into their bloodstreams? Tens of thousands crippled, thousands dead maybe? You won’t see a single case of vaccine injury on CNBC, and no hospital will ever admit to such a possibility. It’s all over the internet.

Did the Israeli authorities, and military, just stand by and allow their citizens to be kidnapped and murdered? Were they simply incompetent, unaware, distracted? Is there a “back-story”?

Will we ever know? The media barrage is intense. Advertisers are perplexed. The world is being dragged into an unending domestic disturbance in the Middle East, one with no solution, across an ancient land poisoned by hatred and greed.

The Israelis declare “This is our 9/11.” Considering the enormous doubts raised about that spectacle, their statement may be truer than they imagine.

The post “The King’s New Clothes – Hamas, Israel, Censorship” appeared first on Ankara Haftalik.

Israel has not only been the victim of a vicious and despicable terrorist attack. It is also the victim of a brazenly cynical move to disrupt the international stage and subvert tranquility in the Middle East. The Israeli-Palestinian powder keg conveniently served to add yet another full scale crisis putting even further pressure on a global order already strained to breaking point. Although no concrete evidence exists of any involvement in the attacks, Russia stands to gain the most from this extra flash point on the world map, as violence and war in the Middle East distracts from Putin’s unjustified war in Eastern Europe and stretches the resources of Ukraine’s allies.

Led by the elusive Mohammed Deif, a series of coordinated and well-executed surprise attacks on 7 October by Hamas caught Israeli defences completely off-guard. The dead run up to 1200 and thousands are wounded as the attacks set off a war against Hamas and Hezbollah, affecting Palestine and Lebanon, and reverberating across Syria and Yemen.

In retrospect, the attack’s material aspects and sophistication seemed to go beyond the known abilities of Hamas. Firstly, there was the advanced technical gear that managed to circumvent Israel’s monitoring capabilities so the attackers could pass undetected. As Israel has state of the art equipment it required equally advanced electronic warfare applications to neutralize it – of the kind only a state actor able to invest in such sophisticated means would be able to provide. The list of countries able to defeat Israeli technical intelligence equipment is small. Secondly, the assault was preceded by an increase in cyberattacks which again would have needed hacking abilities of a particular prowess. Thirdly, Hamas used cryptocurrency to finance its attack, and the links to where the transfers came from still have to be exposed. It should not be surprising therefore, before long speculation arose that there had been help from a powerful state actor, with Iran as the prime suspect. The Iranian envoy to the UN denied Iran’s involvement in the attack saying “We firmly support Palestine, but we are not involved in its response that was carried out alone.” They also added that blaming Iran was a way of justifying Israel’s failure.

However, reports indicate Iran and Hezbollah’s direct involvement in greenlighting and orchestrating the multi-pronged assault by Hamas. According to an October 8 report by The Wall Street Journal, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had been working with Hamas since August to plan the multipronged attacks against Israel. Details of the operation were reportedly discussed at several meetings in Beirut, which were also attended by Hezbollah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). A Hamas spokesperson confirmed Iranian support to the BBC. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) involvement in the operational planning and execution, if confirmed, may partially explain the sophistication and elevated capabilities exhibited by Hamas in this lethal assault, as well as how this elaborate conspiracy evaded detection by Israeli intelligence. That Iran might have orchestrated this large-scale attack on Israel reiterates Tehran’s attempt to coordinate and facilitate the activities of the so-called “axis of resistance”, through direct operational support and offering safe haven for the enemies of Israel.

But obviously this was much more than just a resistance attack against Israel. The most direct effect of the conflagration, apart from the suffering and destruction, has been the halting of peace talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But the ripple effects will extend beyond politics in the Middle East with much wider strategic consequences on the global stage.

A normalization of relations between Tel Aviv and Riyadh would have facilitated the containment of Iran and its terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah through the added American security guarantees. Sabotaging these talks is therefore a direct gain. Saudi Arabia has not cancelled normalization talks, however a Senior Saudi official has stated everything is on hold. But a cascading effect of Israel’s counterassault, if too violent and draconian, could be that Saudi Arabia suspends talks altogether. After the attacks, there was also an incident in Egypt, where a police officer opened fire and killed two Israeli tourists in Alexandria, increasing the risk that Egypt will be in for Israeli retaliation as well. In a statement published by the White House, US Secretary of State Blinken encouraged Turkey to continue their involvement with an emphasis on efforts to free the hostages. But some assess that behind the scenes, Turkey along with Qatar are in support of Hamas. There is small chance of an Arab block forming against Israel, but the incident in Egypt and the reticent attitude of the other Middle Eastern nations show that some countries are not unhappy to see Israel undermined.

All-out war along the West Bank of course distracts from already ongoing crises the world over, such as the war in Eastern Europe. Israeli media reported that US President Joe Biden, in a conservation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the morning of 8 October 2023, informed the prime minister that additional aid to the IDF was on its way to Israel, and would continue in upcoming days. Several vessels from US Carrier Strike Group 12 moved towards the Eastern Mediterranean in a show of support for Israel. The need to monitor the situation in the Middle East and a possible diverting of resources could negatively impact the support of Ukraine’s allies, all of whom are as impacted by what is happening in Ukraine as this new crisis. Both conflicts are in Europe’s near abroad yet Europe does not have the capability to meaningfully influence events as long as the lack of a real EU common security and defence policy keeps it powerless. Adding another crisis further strains Western ability to maintain peace and global order, opening the door for rogue nations to achieve their goals undisturbed while the West is distracted with two wars in its backyard.

As in crime, in hybrid warfare cui bono is the guiding principle towards finding the ultimate culprit. Which begs the question who stands to gain the most from the global strategic repercussions of this event. A question so loud that there might be cause to speculate that Iran was perhaps inspired to execute this attack by a third nation? In any case all the mayhem and disorder resulting from this serious escalation stands to benefit mainly one party: Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Indirectly the Kremlin enjoys all the benefits from the chaos resulting from this drama. Israel has taken a serious blow and risks losing its credibility by becoming the main force of severe violence in the region. The position of the US is checked in the Middle East once more, but more than that the US has to divert attention and resources from helping Ukraine to assisting Israel, as war fatigue takes an increasing grip on US politics and public opinion. The EU is shown once more to be unable to control events within its near abroad and is relegated to about as much irrelevance as the UN in this matter. It is a perfect storm.

An operation like this could come straight out of the aktivye meriopratia toolbox of the GRU and the KGB’s successor SVR. Indeed, within hours of the attacks Russian disinformation mills put out fake stories about Hamas having gotten its weapons from Ukraine in a blatant but obvious attempt to blur where the weaponry might have come from. So even if not inspired by or even clandestinely masterminded by Russian intelligence, Iran and Hamas’ actions certainly played right into the hands of their Russian friends while serving their own direct interests. On 11 October senior Hamas official Ali Baraka stated on Memri TV their intentions could count on Moscow’s sympathy, indicating that the Kremlin approved the operation and may have known beforehand when it would take place. Last year, a high-level Hamas delegation travelled to Moscow twice to meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov. They discussed working together to weaken the West. It would increasingly seem the contents of those discussions included some concrete actions with beneficial domino effects for all the enemies of peace and stability.

The question is if more is to follow. Unfortunately, it looks like it. Multiple crises coming together towards a global conflagration that breaks the international order seems to be the endgame in the war against the international rules-based order and the West currently being waged by the forces of authoritarianism.

Source: DAFZ

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