Turkey’s central bank asked some local lenders this week to step in and buy the country’s dollar bonds, the latest effort to provide a backstop to private markets as pressure builds before a presidential runoff election on Sunday.

Officials called some of the country’s banks on Monday and asked them to buy dollar bonds across multiple maturities in secondary markets, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. The central bank declined to comment.

The request, the people said, was aimed at keeping borrowing costs stable and also to fend off a spike in credit-default swaps — a measure of protection against potential credit events, such as default. The lenders were not given purchase targets, they said.

Authorities have intensified their interventions in markets to provide some stability ahead of the elections, the first round of which was held on May 14 and was inconclusive, with no candidate receiving the necessary 50% of the vote to win. The strategy has been costly, drawing down Turkey’s reserves and pushing foreign investors out of the market.

The latest move appears to have been successful, for now. Turkey’s five-year credit default swaps dropped to 663 basis points after surging to above 700 this week from 480 in the week before the vote. Dollar bonds across varying maturities also rallied, with the yield on the 2047 note, the country’s longest-maturity debt, dropping back below 10%. It had spiked from 8.18% just before the first-round vote.

In the currency markets, the lira has continued to weaken. It traded 0.2% lower at 11:20 a.m. in Istanbul on Thursday, falling to 19.9270, its weakest level ever on a closing basis. The lira has lost 6.1% of its value this year, and 34% since the beginning of 2022.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s surprisingly strong showing in the first round vote — he won 49.5% — led to a selloff in Turkish assets as investors weighed the possibility of his unconventional economic policies continuing. Erdogan faces the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who won 44.9% of the vote in the first round, on Sunday.

Turkey’s central bank will meet for a regularly scheduled interest-rate decision later on Thursday. All 21 participants in a Bloomberg survey expect the bank to hold its benchmark interest rate at 8.5%, the world’s most deeply negative real rate when compared to inflation, which last clocked in at 44% in April.

Source: Yahoo

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Turkey’s pro-Kurdish parties have reaffirmed their support for opposition unity candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in this weekend’s run-off presidential election, one day after conveying their anger at a deal he struck on the expulsion of migrants in order to win the endorsement of a far right party.

Their discomfort at maintaining their backing for Kilicdaroglu was evident in the fact that they did not name him in their May 25 statement on whom they would advise their supporters to vote for in the May 28 showdown. Kurds make up around a fifth of Turkey’s 85mn-strong population and, given the fanning of nationalism seen during the campaigning, will fear a renewed crackdown under the regime, should it emerge unscathed from the election as most analysts expect it to do.

The alternative to Kilicdaroglu in the runoff is Turkey’s leader of two decades Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who officially defeated Kilicdaroglu in the election first round on May 14 by 49.5% to 44.9% and is widely expected to secure re-election in Sunday’s head to head.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and its Green Left (YSP) ally explained on May 25 that they were still seeking a change of government in the runoff and would thus not change their stance on whom to vote for.

HDP co-chair Pervin Buldan told a news conference that party members would vote to end Erdogan’s “one-man regime”, which she referred to as a “freak regime”, saying: “The freak regime created by Erdogan and his partners is the cause of the societal problems that are being experienced. What will be voted on May 28 is whether this freak regime will continue or not.”

Kilicdaroglu on May 24 announced a deal with the anti-immigrant Victory Party (ZP), which secured him their endorsement. The ZP won 2.2% of votes in the parliamentary election that ran in parallel with the presidential poll first-round vote.

To secure the accord, Kilicdaroglu agreed to an article expressing support for the regime policy of replacing mayors with state-appointed trustees where a court ruled that they had terrorism links. Most HDP mayors elected in 2019 have been replaced by such officials.

Buldan was also critical of election campaign rhetoric in which migrants are used for political purposes, saying: “The refugee and migrant problem can only be solved with a strong struggle for peace against policies of war.”

The six-party Nation Alliance led by Kilicdaroglu previously said it would end the practice of replacing mayors with government-appointed trustees.

The endorsement of Kilicdaroglu by ZP leader Umit Ozdag goes some way to countering the endorsement Erdogan received on May 22 from Sinan Ogan, the presidential candidate of a ZP-led far right alliance, who came third in the first-round vote with 5.2% support.

Source: Intelli News

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The Turkish central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) on May 25 held its benchmark rate at 8.50%, the authority said in a statement (chart).

Turkey’s central bank and its policy rate, however, remain idle on the sidelines. The Erdogan regime conducts its monetary policy via macroprudential measures and non-capital controls. 

Almost every day more macroprudential measures or non-capital controls, or amendments to already amended measures, are circulated by news services following briefings given by unnamed sources. Even the treasury departments at Turkey’s banks can hardly keep up with each announced move.

On May 3, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) said that Turkey’s official consumer price index (CPI) inflation was recorded at 44% y/y in April compared to 51% y/y in March.

On May 4, the central bank left its expectation for end-2023 official inflation unchanged at 22% (upper boundary: 27%).

The guidance was based on the assumption that the lira would not experience another crash. As of May 25, the USD/TRY rate in the interbank market was up by 2% to TRY 19.93 from 19.49 on May 4 while free market prices at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul hovered in the 21s.

The lira has lately seen more record-breaking decline. The latest USD/TRY all-time record in the interbank market, set on May 23, stands at TRY 20.32.

Amid the booming lira supply and hard currency outflows via record trade deficits, officials only keep the lira from entering into a nosedive by coercing bankers into blocking and gumming up domestic FX demand. Also supportive are unidentified financial inflows and support from “friendly countries”.

Another lira calamity would come as no surprise. It could happen at any time. Turks have been building up cryptocurrency, cars and gold as assets to prepare themselves for an upcoming storm.

The FX-protected deposits scheme (KKM) introduced by the regime reached $121.5bn as of May 19. The KKM has a 23% share in total deposits while the FX-linked deposits’ share stands at 40%.

The central bank’s net FX reserves have, meanwhile, fallen into negative territory for the first time since 2002. Gross reserves declined by $25bn in the last two months to stand at $102bn as of May 19 while net reserves excluding swaps broke a fresh record with minus $60bn.

The central bank’s net FX position also stands at a fresh record of minus $76bn.

To break the FX demand, the government has lately allowed local banks to offer higher lira deposit rates. As of May 19, the weighted average lira deposit rate with maturities up to three months reached 30.47%.

On Sunday May 28, Turkey will hold its second-round presidential vote runoff, with incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan up against opposition unity candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Observers expect Erdogan to declare on the evening of May 28 that he has been re-elected. The so-called opposition in Turkey never challenges the election results, instead playing an active role to legitimise the officially presented outcome. The theatre of democracy in Turkey continues.

Though Turkey does have a habit for surprises, it currently seems that the Erdogan regime will still be in place on May 29.

In the period ahead, a currency devaluation looks a must due to the re-emerging side effects of the overvalued lira and the fact that the Erdogan regime will be in a position to find some FX supply. If the unidentified flows and the friendly country channels do not satisfy requirements, rate hikes could be on the cards.

On June 22, the MPC is set to hold its next rate-setting meeting.

The turbulence-free mood on the global markets, meanwhile, remains intact although the US government’s debt ceiling showdown between the Biden administration and the Republicans has not yet been overcome. So far, a “sell in May, go on holiday” market shake-up has not occurred.

Turkey’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS) have fallen below the 700-level, while the yield on the Turkish government’s 10-year eurobonds remains above the 10%-level.

On May 24, some unnamed sources told Bloomberg that Turkey’s central bank has asked some local lenders to buy the country’s dollar bonds to prevent a spike in CDS.

Source: Intelli News

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