Rustam Emomali is increasingly the face of his country on the international stage

On January 29, China signed off on an agreement to hand Tajikistan the gift of $2 million to fund the construction of a conference room in a government building.

As grants go, it is not a lot, but the real significance of the development lies elsewhere.

As an official press release asserts, that the money was disbursed at all was the result of a visit paid to Beijing by the 36-year-old chair of the Senate, Rustam Emomali, better known to the public for being the son of President Emomali Rahmon. Common Tajik convention dictates that the son adopt their father’s first name as their surname, hence the echo.

In a pattern reminiscent of the father-to-son transition in Turkmenistan, where Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov yielded the president’s chair to Serdar Berdymukhamedov, in 2022, Emomali has increasingly become his country’s face on the international stage.

He has traveled to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, where he has held meetings with the presidents. In Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, Emomali has met with heads or deputy heads of government.

On January 8-9, he was in Iran, where he held talks with President Ebrahim Raisi and came away brandishing $120 million of cooperation agreements and contracts. It was reported that his China voyage produced $400 million of fresh investments in Tajikistan.

But still, the long wait for transition is making some antsy.

Conversations about a succession plan have been ongoing for around a decade.

Under changes to the constitution approved by a curated referendum in May 2016, the age at which a candidate was permitted to run for presidential office was lowered from 35 to 30. It was thought by many that this was being done to pave the way for Emomali, who was 26 at the time, to stand in the 2020 elections.

There has been more klaxon-volume clue-dropping than even that. In 2017, President Rahmon appointed his son mayor of the capital, Dushanbe, thereby shunting out his old comrade and Kremlin pet, Mahmadsaid Ubaidulloyev. Three years later, Emomali was elected head of the upper house of parliament. He holds both jobs contemporaneously.

There are no more available free rungs on the career ladder in Tajikistan.

At 71, Rahmon is by no means ancient, but he is doubtless aware of his own mortality. His older brother, Nuriddin, died of heart failure at the age of 67 in 2017, despite doubtlessly receiving the best available medical care. And nobody could accuse the corpulent leader of always looking like the poster boy for good health.

So why the wait?

One explanation that has circulated is that there is persistent nervousness about Rahmon handing over the reins to a country that has, after all, known civil war in its relatively recent history. As the poorest country to emerge out of the former Soviet Union, Tajikistan has been assailed by many unexpected shocks.

In the year of the most recent presidential election, 2020, Tajikistan was, along with the rest of the world, brought low by the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic impact of smaller numbers of Tajik migrant laborers being able to earn money to send home, usually from Russia, meant fewer people could afford to buy food.

Once that alarm was more or less weathered, another loomed on the southern border. In August 2021, the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, with which Tajikistan shares a difficult-to-monitor 1,357-kilometer border.

The following year, Rahmon brutally dealt with a domestic security crisis of his own making by going out of his way to crush the remnants of the so-called “informal leadership” network of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region in the Pamirs.

That confrontation, which culminated in many Pamiri leaders and activists ending up either dead or in prison, was part of a pattern established soon after the 1997 peace agreement that brought an end to the civil war. Every few years or so, Rahmon has picked a fight with one or other constituency that he perceived could challenge his authority and has then proceeded to obliterate them.

Tajikistan has not had a real, viable political opposition group since 2015, the year that almost the entire leadership of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, or IRPT, was thrown behind bars.

The most recent trouble has come in the shape of deadly border conflicts with Kyrgyzstan, in 2021 and 2022. Very much against expectations, though, there are indications that the territorial disagreements that underlay those miniature wars could soon see some kind of resolution. The process is now ongoing.

Observers wonder if tying that loose end could be the key.

“President Rahmon has needed to resolve thorny issues that a young leader could not handle. If internal political issues do not arise in the near future, then after the border issues with Kyrgyzstan are resolved, early elections will be announced,” one source in the halls of government told Eurasianet on strict condition of anonymity.

If that forecast is accurate – and there is rarely any way of knowing beyond doubt – then a timetable could be coming into focus.

Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov has said that he thinks the Kyrgyz-Tajik border question could be wrapped up toward this spring.

In a recent article for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on the Tajik succession question, analyst Galiya Ibragimova saw other bumps in the road for a would-be President Emomali. Citing her sources, she said there is much apprehension among the extended ruling family that Emomali could shut them out.

“Not everyone within Rahmon’s large family wants to see Rustam as the successor,” Ibragimova wrote. “Numerous relatives of the president who occupy high positions in government and in the world of business are afraid of losing everything after a change of power, even if it is a change of father to son.”

The presidential family is indeed large. Rahmon has nine children: seven daughters, many of them with husbands who have secured important government posts or snaffled valuable assets by less-than-transparent means, and two sons.

There is nevertheless an air of inevitability about succession. In recent years, Emomali has become a constant feature by his father’s side, forever standing next to him at opening of new factories and schools. He makes a point of being seen meeting with businesspeople and successful sportspeople. News of his charitable work gets ample airing.

In a state of the nation-style address on December 28, President Rahmon said that municipal leaders would do well to learn from the mayor of Dushanbe, his son, who he said had created large numbers of new jobs.

“I would like to express the gratitude of the government of the country to the leadership of the city of Dushanbe. This year alone they created 40,000 jobs … 5,000 of them for women,” Rahmon said, before the camera cut away to Emomali sitting within a row of other officials

Source: Eurasia

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Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the Tajik president has been building for so many years.

Next year will mark thirty years of Emomali Rahmon’s presidency in Tajikistan, now the only country in Central Asia that has not seen a change of leadership since the early 1990s. Unsurprisingly, there have been rumors of an imminent transition of power for a decade.

The name of the successor is no secret: it’s Rahmon’s son, thirty-six-year-old Rustam Emomali. But there is no consensus within the president’s large family over the succession. Some of the president’s other children have their own ambitions to run the country, which could upset plans for the transition.

President Rahmon is seventy-one years old, and has reportedly suffered numerous health issues. Arrangements for the transition have long been in place, but events keep getting in the way of its implementation: first the pandemic and its economic fallout, and then the street protests in neighboring Kazakhstan in January 2022, which frightened the Tajik leader and persuaded him it was not a good time to step down. Even Turkmenistan has seen a power transition in recent years. Now Tajikistan is expected to implement its own in 2024.

Rustam has already headed a number of government agencies. Since 2017, he has been mayor of Dushanbe: a post he has combined since 2020 with that of speaker of the upper house of parliament, to whom power would automatically pass if the current president were to step down early.

His supporters argue that as the capital’s mayor, he has improved the city, supported youth initiatives, and started to form his own team of young technocrats. Some are counting on him to carry out at least limited reforms once he is in power, such as those seen in neighboring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Not everyone believes Rustam is ready to take over, however. The future president is an unknown quantity for most Tajiks. All of his public appearances are prerecorded and accompanied by information read out by the broadcaster, meaning that people have not even heard him speak. His nickname on social media is “the great mute.”

More worryingly, the heir apparent has reportedly shot and wounded two people: his own uncle in 2008, and—just last year—the head of the State Committee for National Security, Saimumin Yatimov, supposedly for refusing to carry out orders.

There are those within the presidential family who do not want to see Rustam succeed his father because they fear losing prestigious posts in government and business. They are indignant that there are no relatives within the team he is building. The current president cannot possibly keep everyone happy, and this could threaten the transition, as ambitious clan members prepare to battle it out for the top job in order to retain their privileges.

Rahmon has seven daughters and two sons. The most ambitious of them is generally considered to be the second daughter Ozoda, who has headed up the presidential administration since 2016. She is very experienced, works well with her staff, and has the trust of the security services. Unsurprisingly, given the alleged shooting incident, there is no love lost between Rustam and the country’s main security official Yatimov, who has reportedly been paving the way for Ozoda’s candidacy. In addition, her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is also considered a very influential figure, having been deputy chair of the country’s central bank for over seven years.

Another contender for the presidency could be Rahmon’s fifth daughter, Ruhshona, a seasoned diplomat who is well versed in Tajikistan’s political affairs. Her husband is the influential oligarch Shamsullo Sohibov, who made his fortune thanks to his family connection to the president. Together with his brothers, he controls entire sectors of the economy, including transport, media, and banking. Change at the top could deprive the Sohibov clan of both influence and money, so Ruhshona and her husband may well throw their hats into the ring.

They might get the backing of Rahmon’s other children, who also control various sectors of the economy, including air travel (the third daughter, Tahmina) and pharmacies (the fourth daughter, Parvina). There are also plenty of Rahmon’s more distant relatives who owe their fortunes to the president and fear losing their positions under his successor.

Rahmon has relied on the loyalty of various relatives to ensure the stable functioning of his regime. But overly vociferous squabbles within the family could destabilize the situation, and for precisely this reason, Rahmon has tried to temper their ambition. Ruhshona, for example, was sent to the UK as Tajik ambassador to stop her from interfering in the plans for the transition. Her oligarch husband went with her.

Nor is the heir apparent himself outside the fray. There is evidence that Rustam was involved in leaking information to the media about his sister Ozoda’s alleged affair with her driver: something that, in patriarchal Tajikistan, caused serious damage to her reputation. There are also rumors that Ozoda’s main ally Yatimov will be retired from his post as head of the security services and replaced with a close friend of Rustam, Shohruh Saidov.

Right now, international circumstances are conducive to a swift transition. Tajikistan’s relations with its trickiest neighbors, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan, are improving. While the Taliban has yet to be recognized as the legitimate Afghan government by Dushanbe, both sides agreed to strengthen economic ties during the first visit to Tajikistan by a delegation from the radical Islamist movement in March this year. Meanwhile, the Tajik government has pledged to resolve the border dispute with Kyrgyzstan—an issue that has led to several armed clashes in the last three years—by spring 2024. Rahmon is clearly trying to hand over a stable country to his son.

The situation at home, however, is more complicated. There is also considerable opposition to Rustam’s candidacy among the regional elites, who have long supported Rahmon in exchange for access to state resources, and are now seeing many of the most lucrative cash flows appropriated by the presidential family. A transition of power could be an opportune moment to express their displeasure.

Events in Gorno-Badakhshan in spring 2022 were a stark warning of the dangers of that displeasure. After the civil war that ravaged the country in the early 1990s, many of its field commanders settled in the region. Over time, they became informal leaders of the local communities, helping to solve problems that the central government was ignoring, sometimes strong-arming local officials into making the required decision. Rahmon ordered several security operations to rid Gorno-Badakhshan of this dual power system, only for it to reemerge further down the line.

Last spring, protests erupted there after a local man was killed by law enforcement officers. The unrest lasted for several months until Rahmon crushed it by force. Many of the activists were killed or imprisoned, while others fled the country, and the region was brought back under Dushanbe’s control. But the anger simmering in the region could boil over again at the first sign of conflict.

For now, the other regions remain loyal to the regime, but that could change after the power transition if the local elites feel they are not getting sufficient state resources.

By directing all the streams of income and control of the country to his own relatives, Rahmon has painted himself into a corner. Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the president has been building for so many years. Power transitions rarely go to plan in Central Asia, and Tajikistan may be no exception.

Source

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Deputy FM of Turkmenistan Vepa Hajiyev took part in the China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers meeting, trend reports citing the Turkmen Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The meeting, which took place on April 27 in the Chinese city of Xi’an, was attended by the heads of the foreign ministries of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and China, priority issues of cooperation were discussed, topical areas of further partnership were outlined.

The participants of the event noted the important role of cooperation in the Central Asia – China format in the context of intensifying joint efforts aimed at strengthening the constructive partnership of the participating countries of the format on a wide range of issues.

Vepa Hajiyev noted that the Turkmen side expresses confidence that it is the proximity and coincidence of approaches to fundamental issues of the regional and global agenda, based on the vast experience of interaction and good-neighborliness, that provides a unique opportunity to develop modern tools for further establishing cooperation between the countries of Central Asia and China.

Following the meeting, an Information Communique on the fourth meeting of foreign Ministers of the Central Asia – China format and the Minutes of the meeting were signed.

Source: MENA FN

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Representatives of the State Customs Service of Turkmenistan met with representatives of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program on the CAREC Advanced Transit System and Information Common Exchange (CATS/ICE) project.

During the meeting, the parties discussed further practical steps for implementation, reviewed the text of the Memorandum of Understanding on CATS/ICE, and also announced the appointment of the State Customs Service of Turkmenistan as the coordinating body for this project.

CATS/ICE is an Electronic System for controlling the movement of transit goods through the CAREC member States (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, People’s Republic of China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), modeled on the New Computerized Transit System (NCTS) of the EU.

Source: MENA FN

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Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, Chairman of Dragon Oil, welcomed a high-level delegation from the Republic of Turkmenistan, headed by Ashyrguly Begliyev, Deputy Prime Minister of Turkmenistan in Dubai.

The delegation comprised Haji Muhammad Raja Muradov, Minister of Energy of Turkmenistan, Batyr Amanov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Turkmen Gas, Sardar Mamed Jarajayev, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Turkmenistan to the UAE, Jovanch Agajanov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Turkmennebit, and Nyazly Nyazlyyev, Chairman of the State Concern (Turkmenhimiya).

Also in attendance were Ahmed Buti Al Muhairbi, Ahmed Sharaf, Hussain Lootah, and Qusay Al Shared, Board Members of Dragon Oil Company, and Ali Rashid Al Jarwan, CEO of Dragon Oil.

During the meeting, the parties discussed various matters of mutual interest, including investment in the oil and gas sector, joint projects, and opportunities for future cooperation. The Deputy Prime Minister of Turkmenistan praised Dragon Oil’s efforts in developing the energy sector and emphasised the importance of continuing the cooperation to achieve common goals.

Al Tayer expressed his happiness with the meeting, appreciating the relations between the UAE and Turkmenistan and highlighting the investments made by Dragon Oil. The company has been active in oil and gas exploration in the Caspian Sea for over 20 years and has invested $8 billion in Turkmenistan since 2000. The company plans to invest an additional $8 billion by 2035, in light of the renewal of the production partnership in Turkmenistan for an additional 10 years, starting from 2025.

Al Tayer emphasised that cooperation between Dragon Oil and Turkmenistan has a positive impact on the energy industry in the region, pointing to Dragon Oil’s commitment to enhancing its presence in Turkmenistan by supporting current expansion plans and launching more sustainable discoveries in this promising market, as well as creating long-term value that benefits everyone.

He also noted that relations between the UAE and Turkmenistan are developing significantly, with new investments contributing to developing and consolidating relations between the two sides in various economic and investment fields.

Source: ZAWYA

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Kassym-Jomart Tokayev continues to receive congratulations from the heads of foreign states and heads of international organizations on the occasion of the Nauryz holiday, the press service of Akorda reports.

The President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev in his congratulatory telegram noted that along with its ancient history, Nauryz in its philosophical content reflects the common customs and values ​​of the Kazakh and Uzbek peoples.

“I am deeply convinced that our mutual cooperation based on good neighborly relations will expand in accordance with the common interests of our peoples, and further intensification of high-level mutual ties will help strengthen our strategic partnership and allied relations,” the telegram says.

The President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov wished the fraternal Kazakh people good and happiness.

“I believe that this year will be a year of development for our countries. May the multifaceted relations between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, based on common spiritual values ​​and friendship, as well as strategic partnership, consistently develop thanks to our common efforts,” Sadyr Japarov wrote in a congratulatory message.  

President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon wished Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev good health and new successes, and peace, prosperity and prosperity to the fraternal people of Kazakhstan.

“I am sure that our countries, with new hopes and aspirations, following the unfading values ​​of Navruz, will continue to expand and develop their friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation within the framework of a strategic partnership,” the leader of Tajikistan said.  

The congratulatory message of the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, emphasizes that Nauryz is a valuable contribution of our peoples to world culture.  

“This holiday symbolizes mutual understanding, friendship and solidarity. I believe that, by the will of our peoples, we will continue our joint efforts to preserve and strengthen Azerbaijani-Kazakh friendly relations and partnership,” the telegram says.  

President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov, President of Iran Ibrahim Raisi, President of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili and Secretary General of TURKSOY Sultan Raev also sent their congratulations.

Source: informburo

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