The U.S. military should reassess its force posture in Europe and reduce its reliance on revolving door-style unit rotations, a major think tank’s analysts concluded in a Monday report.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ transnational threat team based their study on official documents, open-source materials and interviews with subject-matter experts.

The report’s authors recommend that the Army abandon the rotational armor brigade deployment model that “eats up … the Army’s force structure and long-term readiness.” Currently, two armor brigades are deployed to Europe. Instead, the report said, the service should permanently station an Armored Brigade Combat Team in Poland to replace one rotational unit and eliminate the remaining rotation altogether.

An Army Times investigation found that tank brigades and enlisted tank crew members were at higher risk of suicide than other soldiers in recent years, due in part to a decade of high operational tempo fueled by such non-combat deployments. The service once had armor brigades in Europe, but they were removed in the early 2010s.

Currently, the Army maintains a large presence of rotational forces in Europe. V Corps’ forward headquarters in Poznan, Poland oversees the three temporarily deployed brigade combat teams, which includes one light infantry brigade in addition to the two armor brigades. Other rotational forces include division headquarters, a combat aviation brigade, fires assets and sustainment units.

But the short-tour model has consequences, the report’s authors argued. They cost more money in the long-term compared to permanent bases, and they are less integrated into the continent’s culture and defense network. The deployment-based model negatively impacts soldiers, too — the authors said evidence suggests they “separate military personnel from their families,” causing “low morale” that can spawn “discipline issues and increased divorce rates.”

Army spokesperson Col. Roger Cabiness II told Army Times, however, that “forward basing of an ABCT is not a simple task.” Doing so would require diplomatic and legislative approvals both at home and abroad.

Despite efforts to reduce their operational tempo, the Army’s armor units continue to deploy at a high rate to fulfill the Europe requirements. The 4th Infantry Division’s 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team cased its colors Monday, signifying its departure for an eight- or nine-month Europe rotation. The Iron Brigade’s new mission is beginning roughly 16 months after returning to Fort Carson, Colorado from another Europe deployment that wrapped in December 2022.

The report’s authors also recommended that the Air Force station an additional F-16 squadron in Germany; increase anti-submarine warfare capability and air defense forces; bolster stockpiles of prepositioned equipment and ammunition; and continue modernization, cyber, space and security cooperation efforts.

Source: Army Times

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The latest Mideast mission by America’s top diplomat opened with talks in Turkey and Greece before shifting to the region for “not necessarily easy conversations” with allies and partners about what they are willing to do “to build durable peace and security.”

Blinken’s fourth visit in three months comes as developments in Lebanon, northern Israel, the Red Sea and Iraq have put intense strains on what had been a modestly successful U.S. push to prevent a regional conflagration since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, and as international criticism of Israel’s military operation mounts.

Blinken held meetings with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, in Istanbul about what Turkey and others can do to exert influence, particularly on Iran and its proxies, to ease tensions, speed humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza and begin planning for reconstruction and governance of postwar Gaza. Much of the territory has been reduced to rubble by Israeli bombardments.

In Chania, a port city on the Mediterranean island of Crete, Blinken later visited with Greece’s prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, at his residence. “These are difficult and challenging times,” Mitsotakis said.

Blinken’s day was ending in Jordan, with stops in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Monday. Blinken will visit Israel and the West Bank on Tuesday and Wednesday before wrapping up the trip in Egypt. He said his priorities are protecting civilians — “far too many Palestinians have been killed” — getting more humanitarian aid into Gaza, ensuring Hamas cannot strike again and developing a framework for Palestinian-led governance in the territory and “a Palestinian state with security assurances or Israel.”

The ultimate goal, he said, is lasting peace, and his talks will focuses on what U.S. allies and partners are prepared to do to help with that process.

“These are not necessarily easy conversations. There are different perspectives, different needs, different requirements, but it is vital that we engage in this diplomacy now both for the sake of Gaza itself and more broadly the sake of the future for Israelis and Palestinians and for the region as a whole,” Blinken said.

“There is clearly a strong desire among the majority of people in the region for a future that is one of peace, of security, of de-escalation of conflicts, of integration of countries and that’s one path, that’s one future. The other future is an endless cycle of violence, a repetition of the horrific events that we’ve seen and lives of insecurity and conflict for people in the region, which is what virtually no one wants.”

Turkey, and Erdogan in particular, have been harshly critical of Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the prosecution of the war and the impact it has had on Palestinian civilians.

But Blinken told reporters before he flew from Crete to Amman that “from our conversations today, it’s clear that Turkey is prepared to play a positive, productive role in the work that needs to happen the day after the conflict ends and as well more broadly in trying to find a path to sustainable peace and security.’’ Blinken would not go in details about what he heard from the Turkish officials.

“I think they’re also prepared … to use the ties, the influence they have, the relationships they have with some of the critical players and some of the critical countries in the region to do everything possible to deescalate and to prevent the conflict from spreading. … They clearly have a shared interest with us in doing just that and I’m confident from these conversations that they’re going to make every possible effort,” Blinken said.

Hours before Blinken’s meetings, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia fired dozens of rockets at northern Israel and said the barrage was an initial response to the targeted killing, presumably by Israel, of a top leader from the allied Hamas group in Lebanon’s capital this past week.

Stepped-up attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have disrupted international trade and led to increased efforts by the U.S. and its allies to patrol the vital commercial waterway and respond to threats. The coalition of countries issued what amounted to a final warning to the Houthis on Wednesday to cease their attacks on vessels or face potential targeted military action. Since Dec. 19, the militants have carried out at least two dozen attacks in response to the Israel-Hamas war.

From the Turkish officials, Blinken sought at least consideration of potential monetary or in-kind contributions to reconstruction efforts in Gaza and participation in security arrangements, according to U.S. officials.

Blinken also stressed the importance that the U.S. places on Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s membership in NATO, a long-delayed process that the Turks have said they will complete soon. Sweden’s entry to the alliance is seen as a significant response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A Turkish official said Fidan told Blinken that Israel’s “increasing aggression” in Gaza was a threat to the region and he called for an immediate cease-fire and the delivery of “uninterrupted” humanitarian aid. Fidan said negotiations for a two-state solution should begin “as soon as possible,” according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issues in the private talks.

Fidan also said Turkey was awaiting the outcome of its request to upgrade its fleet of F-16 fighter jets and stressed that the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership lay in the hands of the Turkish parliament.

Source: The Star

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The escalation of geopolitical tensions linked to the Ukrainian crisis has highlighted two main opposing camps of countries — an Alliance of Democracies on one side and a Group of Authoritarian Regimes on the other. A number of countries have resisted choosing sides, however, as they strive to balance their national interests with international developments while simultaneously advocating the need to maintain peaceful diplomacy and global connections.

While the number of these so-called “in-between” countries abound (particularly in Latin America, Africa, and South and Central Asia), only a few of them have upheld an outspoken commitment to the principles of multilateralism and non-violence. One of these is Kazakhstan, which, through its rhetoric and actions, has consistently demonstrated a commitment to international principles enshrined in the UN Charter despite severe challenges to the country’s economy and stability brought on by recent global developments. Impressively, Kazakhstan’s strong compliance with economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia has stood the test of time.

Amid a slew of destabilizing events including a violent coup attempt in January 2022 and an ongoing international crisis embroiling its neighbor Russia, Kazakhstan has taken important steps towards strengthening democracy and stability at home such as limiting presidential powers, fighting oligopolies and recovering assets stolen from the country by cronies of the old regime. Kazakhstan has also maintained its commitments to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has contributed to energy and food security in Europe.

Last year, in a public discussion with Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Tokayev made it very clear that his country remained committed to the UN principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. “Kazakhstan recognizes neither Taiwan, nor Kosovo, nor South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This principle will be applied to quasi-state entities, which, in our opinion, are Luhansk and Donetsk,” the President sad. Such position of Kazakhstan has been vocal and proved by consistency in voting pattern on UN Ukraine-related resolutions.

Kazakhstan has taken important steps towards strengthening democracy and stability at home, such as limiting presidential powers, fighting oligopolies and recovering assets stolen from the country by cronies of the old regime.

Still, such persistent dedication to international democratic principles (by a relatively weaker country squeezed in a geopolitical triangle with two much-stronger neighbors, i.e. China and Russia) has not been enough to alter a seemingly entrenched negative opinion of Kazakhstan. With an especially strong viewpoint particularly in the West, under the banner of “human rights”, oligarchs can bait international NGOs and the media into believing their proxy political figures are victims of authoritarian abuse. When every decision taken by Kazakhstan courts against these local proxies is criticized, their oligarchic overlords gain enormous leverage at the expense of damaging Kazakhstan’s international credibility and reputation, as well as undermining its fledgling process of democracy building.

One such case involves a Kazakhstani citizen Zhanbolat Mamai, who was sentenced in September 2017 to a three-year suspended sentence for the theft and embezzlement of funds. Considered an independent journalist and a political activist, Mamai allegedly violated Kazakhstan’s law again and has been charged for insulting a government representative (under Kazakhstan’s Criminal Code, Article 378), spreading false information (under Article 274), and organizing illegal protests (under Article 488). Amnesty International has called this decision an “act of retribution” by the government. However, Amnesty’s coverage of the Mamai case tells only half the story.

Charged with illegal actions, Mamai has subsequently positioned himself as a persecuted human rights defender. He has received financial and political support from Mukhtar Ablyazov, who stole billions of dollars from a Kazakhstan bank and then fled the country. Ablyazov has already lost various court cases in the United States, Great Britain and France. Mamai has allegedly used Ablyazov’s money to run an unregistered political party called the Democratic Party of Kazakhstan.

Nonetheless, the above facets of the Mamai case are sometimes not taken into consideration by human rights organizations.

It is also worth noting that Mamai is not in prison (as stipulated by Articles 378 and 274) but has instead received a suspended sentence.

The fact that not all sides are taken into consideration is now facing a backlash in Kazakhstan. Local NGOs are questioning whether the motivations behind attacking Kazakhstan over these high[1]profile cases are truly about human rights. In the meantime, the government is implementing reforms to address the everyday concerns of Kazakhstani people, including protecting their social welfare, healthcare and financial prospects.

The difficult balancing act that Kazakhstan’s government is trying to manage in both its international and domestic affairs faces many challenges. But credit should be given where it’s due. In this environment, Western NGOs and media falling prey to tactics by the beneficiaries of the old Kazakhstan regime only hurt the country’s nascent democratization process and its efforts to break from authoritarianism and corruption still widespread elsewhere in Central Asia.

Luc Rodehefer is a foreign policy expert and a freelance financial analyst. A former banker, he is currently based in France and covers political and economic relations between the EU and emerging markets.

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The authors of the document emphasized that after Dushanbe Mayor Rustam Emomali took the post of speaker of the upper house of the Tajik parliament in April 2020, he became the second person in the state and the first in line for the presidency.

At the same time, according to analysts, the 2020 parliamentary elections, like the presidential elections held in the same year, were “neither free nor fair.”

The State Department considers Tajikistan an authoritarian state, which has been ruled by Emomali Rahmon for more than 30 years, concentrating power in his own hands. For example, all law enforcement agencies of the republic and the Customs Service report directly to the president.

“While the country’s constitution provides for a multi-party system, the government has historically hindered political pluralism,” the report says.

According to Radio Ozodi (the Tajik service of Radio Liberty, recognized in the Russian Federation as a foreign agent), earlier the Tajik authorities criticized the reports of the US State Department for their politicized nature. Dushanbe believes that the document “does not trace an objective analysis of the current situation with human rights in the country”, and the speakers rely mainly on “information from interested sources, which casts doubt on the reliability of the published data.”

The US State Department has been publishing annual country reports on human rights for nearly 50 years. Analysts are preparing the document in cooperation with local and international human rights organizations, as well as with statistical agencies.

Let’s add that in the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia, presidents are reluctant to give up power, sometimes resorting to amendments to the Constitution, “nullifying” the previous terms and giving the right to run for office again.

In Uzbekistan, from the first days of gaining independence, the country was ruled by Islam Karimov for 26 years, until his death in September 2016. A few months later, Shavkat Mirziyoyev was elected the head of the country. At the end of April, a referendum will be held in Uzbekistan to change the text of the Constitution, which will allow Mirziyoyev to reset his presidential term and hold the post of head of state for another 14 years.

In Turkmenistan, Saparmurat Niyazov, who came to power during the years of independence, remained in the presidency until his death in 2006. His successor was Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who in March 2022 gave way to his son Serdar Berdimuhamedov and became the speaker of the country’s parliament.

The first President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, held this position from 1990 to 2019. He then resigned of his own accord. For some time, the duties of the president were performed by the speaker of the upper house of parliament, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who in June 2019 held early presidential elections and won them. Elections were again held in the country last fall (due to changes to the constitution), which will keep Tokayev in power for at least the next seven years.

Only in Kyrgyzstan, presidents changed quite often, but, as a rule, this was accompanied by revolutions and popular unrest. Apart from acting duties, there are six presidents in the republic: Askar Akaev (from 1990 to 2005), Kurmanbek Bakiyev (from 2005 to 2010), Roza Otunbaeva (2010-2011), Almazbek Atambaev (from 2011 to 2017), Sooronbai Jeenbekov (from 2017 to 2020) and the current head of state Sadyr Japarov.

Source: fergana

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Israeli private detective, Aviram Azari has pleaded guilty for involvement in surveillance and cyber intelligence hack scheme in April 2022. Azari, who has been detained and under investigation in the United States since 2019, used New Delhi-based hacking company BellTroX Info Tech Services to conduct surveillance operations on Russian oligarchs.

The Azari case surfaced the name of a Russian businessman and aluminium magnate, Oleg Deripaska as one of the Israeli private detective’s clients. Deripaska allegedly employed Azari in connection with a business dispute in Austria. Both BellTroX and Deripaska’s press secretary had denied being involved in the hacking and claimed that the accusation was false.

New York prosecutors alleged that Azari had orchestrated a series of hacking attacks on behalf of unnamed third parties against US companies that are based in New York, using fake websites and phishing messages to steal passwords from email accounts. Azari’s attorney Barry Zone said the allegation against the defendant stemmed from the work that Azari did for German payment company Wirecard, which filed for insolvency in June 2020, owing creditors almost $4 billion, after disclosing a 1.9 billion hole in its accounts that EY said as the result of a sophisticated global fraud.

New investigation reports by an international consortium of journalists at The Guardian revealed a team of Israeli contractors who claim to have manipulated more than 30 elections around the world using hacking, sabotage and automated disinformation on social media. The team appears to have been working under the radar in elections in various countries for more than two decades.

The team was led by Tal Hanan, a 50-year-old former Israeli special forces operative who works privately using the pseudonym “Jorge”. Team Jorge ran a private service offering to covertly meddle in elections without a trace. The team also have corporate clients.

One of Team Jorge’s key services was a sophisticated software package, Advanced Impact Media Solutions also known as Aims. It controlled a vast army of thousands of fake social media profiles on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Telegram, Gmail, Instagram and YouTube.

Hanan told the undercover reporters that his services, which others described as “black ops”, were available to intelligence agencies, political campaigns and private companies that wanted to secretly manipulate public opinion. He said they had been used across Africa, South and Central America, the US and Europe. The methods and techniques described by Team Jorge raise new challenges for big tech platforms, which have for years struggled to prevent nefarious actors spreading falsehoods or breaching the security on their platforms. Evidence of a global private market in disinformation aimed at elections will also ring alarm bells for democracies around the world.

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