When asked what would change for Türkiye if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris won the presidential elections in the US on November 5th, I can hear many of you saying “Nothing”.
To understand, we need to look at which of today’s problems in Türkiye-US relations would be “normalized” – let’s not say solved – under which president.
Before listing the problems, addressing an acute, current political-ideological issue is necessary, but not in Türkiye-US bilateral relations. The election of Trump or Harris should not be expected to change the US policy on the Gaza Crisis and the unconditional defense of Israel not only for the Palestinians but in all situations, which is a sensitive issue for all parties in the Parliament. We know Harris’ line by now, but Trump (also under the possible influence of his son-in-law Jared Kushner) can be expected to adopt a more hawkish pro-Israel policy.
Let’s focus on bilateral issues.
S-400s: a burden?
The S-400 issue remains the most systemic problem in Turkish-US relations. It was Donald Trump, during his presidency, who removed Türkiye from the F-35 program, of which Türkiye used to be a co-producer, due to its purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. There is no sign that he will change this policy if re-elected. Likewise, there is no sign that this policy will change if Harris is elected. In any case, the pressure and sanctions on Türkiye to “get rid” of the S-400s will likely continue.
The project to compensate for the absence of the F-35 with the National Combat Aircraft “Kaan” is awaiting US approval for the engine. General Electric’s F404 engine for the (smaller, training, and light assault platform) Hürjet and GE’s F110 engine for the Kaan are considered. If the US does not sell, can permission be obtained for British Rolls Royce engines for the Kaan, designed in cooperation with British engineers?
Congress has authorized the sale of F-16s in exchange for Turkish approval of Sweden’s NATO membership, but no new Fighting Falcon is on the horizon yet. Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler’s insistence on the Eurofighter Typhoon is not in vain. It, too, depends on Germany’s authorization. Other issues are not mentioned much, such as submarine systems.
Syria-PKK if Trump wins
Those who calculate that if Trump wins, he will withdraw troops from Syria and the PKK will be left without support may be wrong. (As the Syria extensions of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party is the US partner there, rhetorically against ISIS) Yes, Trump had said he was withdrawing troops from Syria. Starting from the CENTCOM commander, the American military authorities said “We are not withdrawing”. They did not. The number of American “military advisors” in Syria, which was around 400 then, is now around 800. Trump realized that he was asking for trouble by belittling and ostracizing the military, the military industry, and NATO. If elected now, he may be more militarist than the Democratic administration.
Trump may also have been made more aware of the importance of supporting Kurdish nationalism in southern Türkiye against Iran and in favor of Israel. But if he continues to ignore the military, it could even risk his election win. American arms manufacturers do not want Russia’s war in Ukraine to end, nor the conflicts in the Middle East.
Türkiye if Harris wins
There is a country called Türkiye on Trump’s radar screen. This is due to the so-called friendship between President Tayyip Erdoğan. I say “so-called” because even though Erdoğan still calls Trump “my friend”, this friendship did not prevent him from removing Türkiye from the F-35, hurting the economy with a currency hit in the case of Pastor Brunson and writing and publishing an arrogant letter to Erdoğan saying “don’t be stupid”.
Trump is an unpredictable politician.
There is no sign yet of a country called Türkiye is on Harris’ radar screen, but at least she is a predictable politician; she has been Vice President for the last four years.
Whichever candidate wins, it is clear that there will be no move on the extradition of Fethullah Gülen; the Pennsylvania resident Islamist leader who has been indicted of masterminding the 2016 coup attempt in Türkiye. I’m not sure how much President Erdoğan really wants him, although he talks about it all the time.
Russia, Iran, Hamas, Greece
Ten thousand kilometers away, the US may have difficulty understanding that Türkiye -and not only under Erdoğan – has to maintain good relations with its neighbor Russia, even if it is a NATO member on opposite sides. The same with Iran. It requires a historical perspective to realize that these three countries are rivals in this geography, no matter how they maintain their relations.
But in difficult situations, there is also a need for the US for an extra channel to talk to Russia, such as the recent human swap in Ankara hosted by the Turkish intelligence MİT. Türkiye is trying to maintain its ties with both Russia and Ukraine while providing NATO assistance to Ukraine.
It is the same with Hamas. In the end, some channels need to remain open. For example, İbrahim Kalın, the head of MİT was talking to Hamas political bureau members in Ankara for a hostage swap with Israel.
I believe Turkish relations with Greece and Egypt in the context of stability in the East Mediterranean will not differ whether Trump or Harris wins.
In this regard, we can assume that if Trump wins, he will act with the pragmatism of “What’s in it for us?”. If Harris wins, I am not sure if she will show the same flexibility. However, if the news is that Harris will have in her team names like Phil Gordon, who knows Europethe Middle East, as well as Türkiye well, the situation may be different.
